Monday, November 10, 2008

Some More College Players and the Senior Prospects Metric




So who's this "Mandy Morales" girl?

I've added the Preseason Top 25 players has sparked a lot of discussion.

I have my own draft list of over 100 players, but there were players on bullsky's list that weren't on my list. I looked at the one's missing on my list, and then ranked them using the Senior Prospects Metric.

So does the newest WNBA Draft website find some diamonds...or does it dig some coal?

Robyn Fairbanks, Utah Valley State

Strengths: Averaged 23.8 points a game for Utah Valley State. Good rebounder and shot blocker.
Weaknesses: Plays for a weak conference - as a matter of fact, Utah Valley State does not belong to a conference. Short for a center.

Projection: Will not be drafted. I have her as #48 in my list of players. However, she should definitely show up at a WNBA pre-draft camp. Someone should at least give her a chance, given the dearth of centers.

Lindsay Wysdom-Hilton, Purdue

Strengths: Blocked Shots. Steals. All of the great defensive stats that would translate to NBA success if she were male.
Weaknesses: ACL tear led her to miss all of 2007-08. She's one year ahead of the other players in development.

Projection: I'm a moron for missing her. I had to evaluate Purdue's strength in 2007 as equal to 2008, since I don't have the Sagarin ratings for 2006-07, and they're not on the internet. If we assume that Purdue stands relatively to other teams the same way in 2006-07 as 2007-08...she jumps to #2. A first round pick, and the highest ranked forward.

Candace Byngham, Louisville

Strengths: Biggest contribution in my metric is in steals. Also a good rebounder.
Weaknesses: Age - older players take a bigger hit. Furthermore, at 6-1, she's small for a forward.

Projection: I have her at #39, which puts her as a candidate for the third round of the WNBA draft.

Jhasmin Player, Baylor

Strengths: Few turnovers and high steals ratio. Something tells me she's a great ball handler.
Weaknesses: She only played 21 games last year with a torn ACL. Therefore, we're looking at a smaller sample size of games. Games earlier in the season are usually against non-conference foes, and the Big East was the baddest conference around last year.

Projection: #15. On the border of second round/first round. She really needs to stand out as a senior.

Aisha Mohammed, Virginia

Strengths: She's a great rebounder.
Weaknesses: First, she'll be 23 on draft day. She's suffered a knee injury. She has a lot of turnovers (even for a center) and she doesn't have many blocked shots at all for someone playing the five position.

Projection: #115. She's not going to be drafted unless some team is absolutely desperate for a relatively unskilled rebounder. We'll see her in international play if her knees hold out.

Marshae Dotson, Florida

Strengths: High steal ratio. Good rebounder despite her size.
Weaknesses: High number of turnovers. Really too short to be a forward in the WNBA.

Projection: #81. The statistics say that she'll be one of the last people invited to a WNBA camp, and one of the first ones cut.

Mandy Morales, Montana

Strengths: Excellent assist to turnover ratio. As in 129 assists and 69 turnovers. Furthermore, she was the leading scorer for her team.
Weaknesses: Only age and that some might look down on the Big Sky conference.

Projection: bullsky over at the 2009 WNBA Draft site really found a diamond in the rough. Her stats project her as a first rounder, and she goes to #10 on my list. Someone should keep their eye on Mandy Morales.

7 comments:

Patrick said...

I've adjusted my calculation for the top 25...which gives credit for making top 25 in shooting (using floor%, efg% and ts%) rpi adj WIN, USG%, Boxscore, rebounding (off reb%, def reb%, reb/40), off rtg, and rpi adj individual rating. The list looks more traditional but remains post heavy because of the emphasis on rebounding and efficiency.

pt said...

Patrick, I definitely plan to run the players from your list that I don't have on mine. I've just added a primitive form of usage percentage to the metric, so your players get to be the first test.

Patrick said...

i have my current list on my blog. i have run a usage formula for mine...I just used the standard formula off basketball-reference.com

Patrick said...

btw, do you have a link to Bobbitt's Baylor stats for last season? The season stats for Baylor from the official site are down.

pt said...

Patrick, I sent them to your aitch-pee adress. I hope you got them.

Sam Miller said...

My classmate Jhasmin Player is going to be a very dominant force. Yes she has amazing ball handling skills.

Sam Miller said...

Jhasmin Player is the only person I've ever heard of male or female that has achieved a quadruple double in a game.