The WNBA Draft Experience, Part I

Subtitle: "Or, How I Defeated Shavonte Zellous"



Okay, you're all dying to hear about how my two days went at the WNBA Draft Event. So I'm here to tell you the whole thing.

I bid money on a two day package to attend the 2009 WNBA Draft. Here's what the package offered:

April 8th

- Player Meet & Greet at the NBA Store on 5th Avenue
- Following the NBA Store event, you will ride with the WNBA Draftees to ESPNZone in New York City. At the ESPNZone you will have dinner (alcohol not included) and the opportunity to participate in a pop-a-shot competition with and against WNBA Draftees.

April 9th

- 2 tickets to the 2009 WNBA Draft presented by adidas at the NBA Studios in New Jersey.
- Be in a photo with the #1 WNBA Draft pick taken the day of the Draft.

To my shock, I won the auction. I was having some misgivings - I would have to provide my own transportation and hotel space - but once you click that button, 'what's done is done'. To my surprise, I managed to win the damned thing. I would have to start making my plans.

My goal - to fly into New York City on Wednesday morning, zoom through two days of entertainment provided by the WNBA, and then return home on a red-eye flight to Atlanta that left LaGuardia at 6:30 am so that I could be back to the office on Friday. My wife outfitted me in the proper finery - the goal was to not look like I had misplaced my "WILL WORK FOR FOOD" sign - and I got on that plane and began the experience of a lifetime.

(* * *)

Wednesday, April 8 2009

I arrived at New York and ended up at the Sheraton New York a little earlier than expected. To top off my confusion, I found myself unable to calculate a 25 percent tip for a $29 cab ride from LaGuardia to the Sheraton. (The toll through the Lincoln Tunnel threw off my calculations.) As a result, I ended up paying the man $40. That cabbie must have thought I was the Prince of Men.

My arrival was a little earlier than expected - my room was not ready. So I stowed my luggage at the Sheraton New York and walked down to one of my favorite haunts back in the days when I actually lived in New York - Midtown Comics at 40th Street in Manhattan. After stealing some reads, I made my way back to the hotel, picked up some McFood, bought some soda for myself at the local Duane Reade and began to prepare myself for the experience.

As it turned out, the NBA Store is exactly two "long blocks" to the east of the Sheraton New York, so I simply walked there. I'll review the NBA Store. If you like clothing related to the NBA, it appears to be a fantastic place. There are all kinds of clothes, accessories and clothing (including replica uniforms) related to the NBA. One feature of the store is a "center court" where one walks down a long circular walkway with the surface of a parquet floor and down to the lower level.

The lower level is where they keep their WNBA stuff. Frankly, there's not much there. There were no replica uniforms of Atlanta Dream, but there were replica unis for other team. Whalen for the Sun, Ford for the Shock, Bird for the Storm...there was generally one replica uniform per represented team. There were some bumper stickers and other knick-knacks. That's it.

In a store, you come face to face with the economic realities of the WNBA. A big store like the NBA Store can only put things on the shelf that they think will sell, and clearly, WNBA merchandice doesn't have the selling power of NBA stuff. However, there's just so much more NBA stuff. The NBA has been around for over 50 years; the WNBA has been around for just ten. Even so, one can buy all kinds of variety of throwback uniform at the NBA Store. If you're an NBA fan, the place is heaven; if you really just care about the WNBA and not about the NBA, there's not much of a point to visit.

(Idea: Someone might be able to run a small store in New York devoted to WNBA merchandise only. They probably wouldn't need a lot of space, but it would probably be more intimate than the crowded NBA Store. They might not be able to sell a lot of it, but the racks would be full.)

At the time, I only had two more goals - to meet RebKell message poster Queenie (known as Rebecca on the Game Notes of Dooooooom blog and to meet Christine, who was my contact for the event. Christine worked for NBA Entertainment and would be shepherding the two of us through these events.

One question you might be asking is, "You're married. Why didn't you take your wife?" First, my wife has only recently found a job as an executive for a concert and event planning company in Atlanta. She had been hired so recently that it probably wasn't the best time to drop everything for two days. Second, there was cost. Third, my wife doesn't care very much about basketball or really, any other sport. (Although she is partial to Roberto Clemente.) It wouldn't have been enjoyable for her, so she sent me off by myself with her blessings.

Finding Queenie wasn't very hard - she was the one wearing the 2009 Final Four T-Shirt. Furthermore, I got to meet her boyfriend, Happycappie25. The two of them were the second and third posters at RebKell that I had ever met - the first was BobScoutingReport. As for Christine, she met us at the appropriate hour, 5 pm.
Queenie asked if Happycappie could attend with the two of us, and Christine was able to swing it. Happycappie would be attending the "meet and greet" with us but would be unable to attend the studio event.

We each received a 2009 WNBA Draft T-shirt. The sizes were the only ones Christine had and I don't think either of us could have worn them. However, the shirts would be put to use in an ingenious way.

The first part of the night was to come down to a sealed-off center court event. The major draft picks were taking place in a pre-event "meet and greet" where they stood around and schmoozed with the elite. As hoi polloi both Queenie and I stood to the side and watched.

But we saw them. Hey, that's Courtney Paris! Hey, that's Kristi Toliver! Hey, that's Lyndra Littles, sitting by herself in a gold-colored sweater like a wallflower. It was a standing room only event and it didn't leave us with much room to move around. I made note of who was there and who was not. As it turned out, there were a couple of players who didn't make it. Renee Montgomery didn't make it - she was probably too busy celebrating her National Championship win with UConn - and I don't think Ashley Walker from California was there, either. Aside from that, the list of potential first round Draft Picks included:

Chante Black, Duke
DeWanna Bonner, Auburn
Marissa Coleman, Maryland
Briann January, Arizona State
Lyndra Littles, Virginia - in the gold sweater
Rashanda McCants, North Carolina
Angel McCoughtry, Louisville
Renee Montgomery, Connecticut - not there
Ashley Paris, Oklahoma
Courtney Paris, Oklahoma - in a sweater that was probably a bit too tight
Kristi Toliver, Maryland
Kia Vaughn, Rutgers
Ashley Walker, California - not there
Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton, Purdue
Shavonte Zellous, Pittsburgh

In the meantime, we were offered all sorts of hors d'oervres, but we didn't partake in any - well, we did try the sesame chicken with peanut butter topping. That was delicious.

It then became time for the actual event to start. Extra bleachers were brought in to accomodate some of the youngest fans. (I suspect some of those youngest fans were the children of event VIPs. Well, 'rank has its privileges'.)

The three of us were seated in a bleacher where the view, unfortunately, was partially obscured by a giant life-sized bobblehead of Allen Iverson (I should be thankful the Yao Ming bobblehead wasn't posted there.) The narrator was Sue Wicks, who spoke about the adventure of signing with the New York Liberty in 1997, where her contract was negotiated on a napkin. She stated that during the process of interviewing with each of the eight teams then in existence, she had always tried to cast doubt as to whether she would be a good fit anywhere except for New York. For example, saying something like "I'm not a Mormon!" to the management of the Utah Jazz. (/joke)

As she spoke, it seemed that Sue Wicks wasn't quite on script. Queenie suggested that she had had a little bit too much red wine. Wicks began to introduce each of the players as if she had been made familiar with their existence only just moments earlier. The faux pas was introducing Rashanda McCants as Chante McCants. True, the names are similiar, but the latter sounds like the shotgun marraige of a "Dookie" and a "Tar Hole".

Angel McCoughtry, as you might have read earlier, missed her cue. While Sue Wicks was starting her seemingly endless introduction, McCoughtry simply wandered up to the semi-circle of chairs and took a seat. This seemed to throw Sue Wicks off even more than usual.

Afterwards, the players were asked some questions. One of them was what players would miss from their playing days. Lyndra Littles volunteered to take that question, saying that she missed the private charter planes she had flown while a member of the Virginia Cavaliers. She spoke of calling her coach and letting her know that. Donna Orender, who was in attendance, mentioned that she too flew on chartered airlines in her WPBL playing days. "Southwest Airlines! My seat has been marked! It's labeled '39-A'!"

Courtney Paris got off a good one liner. She was asked who she'd like to play against. Most of the other players chose the standard players - Lisa Leslie, Sue Bird, etc. - but Paris mentioned Kara Lawson "because we're both point guards", whichi got the biggest laugh of the night.

As this conversation took out, fans were lined up along the spiral walk down to the Center Court, listening in on the fun. When Sue Wicks opined at length about the joys of the Liberty, she got a few shout-outs from the Amen Corner. After the closure of this part of the night, fans were invited down into center court for autographs.

The fans seemed hesitant. Furthermore, I realized that a) we would have had to either break the line or go to the very back of it to get autographs, and b) the first part of the semi-circle of players suddenly had a lot of time on their hands because it would take quite a bit for the fans to get to them. I thought I could kill two birds with one stone by starting at the opposite end of the semi-circle and hopefully finishing before the fans really got started.

My second idea was that I now had a use for my 2009 WNBA Draft shirt. I would have the players sign it and I would have a fully (well, except for Montgomery and Walker) signed T-shirt.

The plan seemed to work. However, there were a few bumps along the way. First, some reporters had "squatted" in the middle of the semi-circle and holding improptu interviews. I suspect that the reporters had simply shown up at the event as press and then decided on their own to get question time with the draftees. I've been told that this is something that is very bad - neither players nor franchise PR offices like it when the media decides to interview a player at a PR event outside of the designated place-and-time. They don't mind players being interviewed per se; they just don't like it when players are unexpectedly interviewed, when some doofus shows up with a tape recorder and starts asking you questions when you, as a player, are trying to sign autographs in a line. Some players were good at this multitasking, others weren't.

Second, the line began to move a bit faster than we expected, so we had to barge our way to the last few players - furthermore, some fans wanted to have converstaions with the players, who seemed a bit nervous and could only make small talk. However, I was successful in getting the T-shirt signed.

Christine patiently waited for us, and we prepared to take the same bus to the ESPN Zone event that the players would take. Actually, it would be players in the back, players' families in the middle and us somewhere near the front, which was fine with us. It was definitely cool - I know that you can't really feel like a player, but you sort of could in a way. Chief of Basketball Operations and Player Relations Renee Brown was on the bus, and she announced to the players that due to time and due to the nature of the event, the players could not stop and sign autographs. Family members had been asked to leave the bus first, so they'd have a chance to form a protective gauntlet so that the players could make their way to the 3rd floor of the ESPN Zone event unaccosted.

Christine waited for us at the ESPN Zone, and we made our way to the third-floor for the Pop-a-Shot Competition. Some other contest winners would be joining teams with WNBA players, and Queenie and I would be joining a team with Lindsay Wisdom-Hylton of Purdue and Shavonte Zellous of Pittsburgh.

Let me tell you something: WNBA players are competitive. One of the players - I don't remember who - complained that her dress top gave her arms no mobility. Rashanda McCants and Lyndra Lyttles were already jumping the gun and taking a few shots before the event began. Not every player was that competitive, but some were.

If you don't know what Pop-a-Shot is, it's an arcade game where you throw basketballs into a fixed hoop, and you try to hit as many shots as possible before time expires. At some point, the backboard moves backwards to a point where "3-point shooting" is simulated.

I haven't even made a field goal even by myself in a good 15 years or so. I certainly hadn't played Pop-a-Shot, not ever. So you can imagine what I was thinking when Rashanda McCants scored 49 Pop-a-Shot points (*) and the machine christened her as some kind of New Record Holder. I just wanted not to embarass myself.

When the whistle blew, I knew it would be number of shots taken that would be the clincher, not quality. I just kept shooting and shooting and shooting. This is the final score the way I remember it:

Wisdom-Hylton: 27 points
Me: 23 points
Queenie: 22 points
Shavonte Zellous: 22 points

Which means that an overweight blogger who hasn't even played basketball competitively outshot Shavonte Zellous. I don't care if Zellous wasn't trying, I'm taking it as a win. I got some swag as a present - a nice bag with the WNBA logo, a WNBA water bottle, some trading cards and some tickets. I had to fill out some papers, so I'm assuming that some swag might be coming by mail.

The next event was dinner. We wouldn't be eating with the draft picks, but Christine treated me, Queenie and Happycappie to dinner. Narrating the dinner event (!!) was Nancy Lieberman herself! She asked the crowd trivia questions. I thought they would be really difficult questions, but they were relatively easy ones if you've followed the WNBA:

"Who is the all-time points leader in WNBA History?" (Answer: Lisa Leslie)
"Who is the only WNBA Player to win Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player in the same year?" (Answer: Candace Parker, Sparks)

I got the second one and a cute little girl walked up with my price - an autographed basketball card of Nancy Lieberman, complete with smiley-face written on it. Queenie won one of Tangela Smith, and Happycappie won one of Jennifer Lacy.

The rest of the night, the three of us chatted with Christine about message boards, how we had all met, WNBA rumormongering and gossip, fan experience, etc. I can honestly say that Christine treated us like royalty. I felt really special. Corny to say that, yes I know, but it's the truth.

(The meal, by the way was great. ESPNZone knows how to make a bacon cheeseburger. This might be the Special WNBA Draft Day Auction Winner's Bacon Cheesburger, and not a cheeseburger accessible to the general public, but it was a good cheeseburger. I recommend a visit to the ESPNZone when you're in New York.)

We said our goodbyes and Christine would meet us at the NBA Entertainment Studios the next day in Secaucus. I walked down to Madison Square Garden with Queenie and Happycappie, and they showed us their traditional meeting place - which would be a good place to meet with Queenie before the event. We would walk the distance from Madison Square Garden to the Port Authority Bus Terminal, which had a bus that went from Manhattan to a location not that far away from NBA Studios. It was a great end to a very long day...but there was more to come.

And now, what you've been waiting for: THE PICTURES!

You can find the gallery of pictures here: The pictures, from left to right:

Courtney Paris chats up some VIPs.
Our seat behind Allen Iverson.
Draft Day Family and Friends. Briann January is in the blue sweater, front row.
Can you see Sue Wicks?
Chante Black is at the far left end, with someone unknown, then Briann January and Lyndra Littles.
Angel McCoughtry takes the mike. I believe it's Rashanda McCants in the glasses.
The back of WNBA Commissioner Donna Orender.
Briann January at the mike.
Now it's Chante's turn.
The bus to the WNBA Event at ESPN Zone.
See the far-away figure holding the mike? That's Hall of Famer Nancy Lieberman.

(*) - Verified by contest winner PattyforPresident over at RebKell. I had her scoring 46.

The First Blurb

Work promises to be busy today, so I'll provide the barest of information. I woke up at 3 am in New York City, took the plane out of LaGuardia at 6:30, and was back to work at 10:15 am. So obviously, I have a lot of work to catch up with. Blogging is light today.

* As you all know, Katie Mattera was waived by the Dream. Somewhere in Atlanta, Art Eckman is wearing a black armband.

* In exchange for one of our extraneous second-round draft picks, Ashley Shields was traded to the Dream. More on that later.

* Atlanta gets an Angel. Angel McCoughtry, that is, who becomes the very first #1 Draft Pick for the Atlanta Dream in the 2009 WNBA Draft.

* Shalee Lehning out of Kansas State and Jessica Morrow out of Baylor become Atlanta's second and third round draft picks.

Down to Four

According to this Associated Press article, one of these four players will be the Dream's #1 Draft Pick:

Marissa Coleman
Angel McCoughtry
Renee Montgomery
Courtney Paris

Maybe part of the puzzle will be decided tonight in St. Louis.

Atlanta Dreaming of 2009 WNBA Title

Yep, it's a big dream, and we know it. But dreams can come tru. 2009 WNBA Draft Net looks at the 2009 Atlanta Dream and tries to do a little draft predicting as well.

Marynell Meadors Makes the New York Times

From this article in the New York Times, written by the AP:

Oklahoma’s Courtney Paris, Louisville’s Angel McCoughtry and Connecticut’s Renee Montgomery — all of whom will be playing in the Final Four this weekend — are expected to be among the top selections, along with Maryland’s Kristi Toliver and Marissa Coleman.

“I think those are the top five or six players,” said Atlanta Dream Coach Marynell Meadors, whose team has the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft on Thursday.

Okay, so we know the first pick next week will be either Courtney Paris, Angel McCoughtry, Renee Montgomery, Kristi Toliver or Marissa Coleman. That narrows it down.

More words from Meadors regarding the off-season roster changes:

“We’ve gotten pretty good in a short period of time, we just got to get everybody playing together,” Meadors said. “I’ve got to have some young backup people that are ready to step in. We’re mainly focusing on the guard situation first to try to have better players in that area.”

Hmmm. Is Marynell trying to feint everyone out on that first pick?

New WNBA Draft Site

The WNBA finally has its own draft site for the 2009 Draft which should take place eight days from now.

It's right here. Enjoy!

The Top 10 Atlanta Dream Draft Prospects?

Atlanta Dream Assistant Coach Sue Panek comes up with a list of Top 10 WNBA Draft Prospects. She writes a little bit about each of them, and I'll give you the abbreviated list in alphabetical order.

1. Chante Black, C
2. DeWanna Bonner, G/F
3. Marissa Coleman, G/F
4. Lyndra Littles, G/F
5. Angel McCoughtry, G/F
6. Renee Montgomery, G
7. Courtney Paris, C
8. Kristi Toliver, G
9. Kia Vaughn, F/C
10. Shavonte Zellous, G

A few comments:

1. You know that Sue Panek has the ear of head coach and GM Marynell Meadors. So this list might be the Atlanta Dream's short list for #1 pick in the draft.
2. Note that Ashley Paris (Courtney Paris's sister) isn't anywhere on this list.

Another Take on the 2009 Draft

Therefore I Blog guesses the first round of the 2009 WNBA Draft. The writer's picks are:

1. Dream - Angel McCoughtry
2. Mystics - Ashley Paris
3. Sky - Renee Montgomery
4. Lynx - Marissa Coleman
5. Mercury - Kristi Toliver
6. Fever - Briann January
7. Monarchs - Courtney Paris
8. Liberty - Shavonte Zellous
9. Lynx - Dewanna Bonner
10. Sun - Chante Black
11. Shock - Lyndra Littles
12. Storm - Kia Vaughn
13. Sparks - Whitney Boddie

Minnesota Lynx Roll Out New Draft Central Page

The Minnesota Lynx have a snazzy new draft headquarters where you can look up the stats and info about the future prospects.

I give this site a definite thumbs up.

2009 WNBA Draft Date Finalized

The WNBA has posted information on the 2009 WNBA Draft. The Draft is to take place Thursday, April 9th at the NBA Entertainment Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. This is two days after the 2009 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament concludes.

ESPN will provide live coverage of the first round of the draft.
ESPNU and NBATV will provide coverage of Rounds 2 and 3.

Supposedly, WNBA.com will also provide prospect information in the near future. I look forward to it. My question, however, is where do you buy tickets to the draft?

Three Third Round Picks for Atlanta

Jacqua Williams makes a Dookie's life miserable.

There has been much discussion about two matters at RebKell:

a) The fact that WNBA roster sizes are shrinking from 13 to 11, and
b) The fact that a third round pick is going to have very little chance of getting on a roster somewhere - there has been some discussion as to whether or not the third round of the WNBA Draft should be dispensed with.

I don't agree with the above proposition found in b). First, when the economy gets better about 10 years from now, the roster sizes might expand. Heck, Donna Orender has talked about the league expanding in 2010. In which case, that third round is going to be useful.

Second, as Clay Kellam wrote at RebKell, the third round of the WNBA Draft gives a chance for papers all across the country to write "Local Girl Drafted in Third Round of WNBA" papers. It's free publicity at least. Furthermore, it might help some of these young women catch on in European ball or even around the league.

Therefore, here is my choice of potential third round draft picks for Atlanta. I hope to have 10 of these, but I'll just name the first two so far....

1. Jacqua Williams, Georgia Tech. Williams has just set the record for most steals ever in an ACC career, so there's no question that Williams can play defense - and Atlanta has been lacking defense. There's already a Georgia Tech-Atlanta Dream connection in that both Kasha Terry and Chioma Nnamaka ended up in Powder Blue last year. Why not pick Williams for the third round? Let's see if Williams can harass WNBA players as well as she harasses her ACC opponents.

2. Brittany Hollins, Georgia State. Why not look at the other Division I school based in Atlanta? She was team captain as a sophomore and junior, so you know she provides leadership? She was on the CAA-All Defensive team for the last three years, so you know that she can play defense. Furthermore, she's in the Top 10 in steals all time for the CAA. She's not much of a scorer, but if Tamera Young from the CAA can make it to the bigs, why not give Hollins a look?

3. Greteya Kelley, Kennesaw State. Another Georgia school. Kelley is a redshirt senior who was the Atlantic Sun Defensive Player of the Year and she also led the Atlantic Sun in steals in 2008 - unfortunately, Kennesaw State is the middle of transferring into Division I, so her "fifth-ranked in steals nationally" doesn't count.

That's just three. Hopefully, seven more to come.

2009 WNBA Draft: April 9, 2009?

Accoring to Jim Fuller at the Jim Fuller at the New Haven Register, we have a prospective date for the 2009 WNBA Draft.

It will be on April 9, 2009 at 3 pm somewhere in New Jersey. Where, I don't know yet, but at least we have a date and (half of) a place.

With all of the trades going on - I won't be mentioning them - the 2009 WNBA Draft Order has changed. Here is the new draft order:

FIRST ROUND

1. Atlanta
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Phoenix
6. Indiana
7. Sacramento
8. New York
9. Minnesota (from Los Angeles through Washington) *
10. Connecticut
11. Detroit
12. Seattle
13. Los Angeles (from San Antonio through Atlanta) **

SECOND ROUND

14. San Antonio (from Atlanta)
15. Minnesota (from Washington) *
16. Chicago
17. Connecticut (from Minnesota) *
18. Phoenix
19. Indiana
20. Sacramento
21. New York
22. Los Angeles
23. Washington (from Connecticut through Minnesota) *
24. Washington (from Detroit)
25. Atlanta (from Seattle)
26. San Antonio

THIRD ROUND

27. Atlanta
28. Washington
29. Chicago
30. Minnesota
31. Phoenix
32. Indiana
33. Sacramento
34. Phoenix (from New York)
35. Los Angeles
36. Connecticut
37. Detroit
38. Seattle
39. San Antonio

* - Minnesota exchanged Lindsey Harding and their second round draft picks in 2009 and 2010 for Washington's first and second round draft picks in 2009. Washington's second round pick in 2009 - the #23 position - came from a conditional right to swap second round picks with Connecticut; we can only assume that they will.

** - Atlanta traded their first round draft pick obtained from San Antonio to Los Angeles for the rights to negotiate with Chamique Holdsclaw.

WNBA Draft Order (Newest Version)

The newest version of the WNBA Draft Order after the Bales-to-Phoenix trade.

FIRST ROUND

1. Atlanta
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Phoenix
6. Indiana
7. Sacramento
8. New York
9. Washington (from Los Angeles)
10. Connecticut
11. Detroit
12. Seattle
13. Los Angeles (San Antonio to Atlanta, then Atlanta to Los Angeles)

SECOND ROUND

14. San Antonio (from Atlanta)
15. Washington
16. Chicago
17. Connecticut (from Minnesota) *
18. Atlanta (from Phoenix)
19. Indiana
20. Sacramento
21. New York
22. Los Angeles
23. Minnesota (from Connecticut) *
24. Washington (from Detroit)
25. Atlanta (from Seattle)
26. San Antonio

THIRD ROUND

27. Atlanta
28. Washington
29. Chicago
30. Minnesota
31. Phoenix
32. Indiana
33. Sacramento
34. Phoenix (from New York)
35. Los Angeles
36. Connecticut
37. Detroit
38. Seattle
39. San Antonio

* - Conditional. Connecticut has the right to swap second round picks with Minnesota; we can only assume that they will.

2009 WNBA Draft Order

Here is the updated draft order, now that the Houston Comets are no more and the WNBA Draft Lottery has been concluded.

FIRST ROUND

1. Atlanta
2. Washington
3. Chicago
4. Minnesota
5. Phoenix
6. Indiana
7. Sacramento
8. New York
9. Washington (from Los Angeles)
10. Connecticut
11. Detroit
12. Seattle
13. Atlanta (from San Antonio)

SECOND ROUND

14. San Antonio (from Atlanta)
15. Washington
16. Chicago
17. Connecticut (from Minnesota) *
18. Phoenix
19. Indiana
20. Sacramento
21. New York
22. Los Angeles
23. Minnesota (from Connecticut) *
24. Washington (from Detroit)
25. Atlanta (from Seattle)
26. San Antonio

THIRD ROUND

27. Atlanta
28. Washington
29. Chicago
30. Minnesota
31. Phoenix
32. Indiana
33. Sacramento
34. Phoenix (from New York)
35. Los Angeles
36. Connecticut
37. Detroit
38. Seattle
39. San Antonio

*: Conditional. Connecticut has the right to swap second round picks with Minnesota; we can only assume that they will.

What the Detroit Shock are Thinking - 2009 WNBA Draft

The latest news from Cheryl Reeves - director of player personnel of the Detroit Shock - is posted up at WNBA.com. She has her own short list of 2009 WNBA draft prospects, which provide some insight as to how WNBA GMs are thinking about the current crop of players.

Here is her list (not in the same order she provides it on the website)

Top Five Picks

Angel McCoughtry, G, Louisville
Renee Montgomery, G, Connecticut
Courtney Paris, C, Oklahoma
Kristi Toliver, G, Maryland
Kia Vaughn, C, Rutgers

Guards

Krystal Ellis, Marquette
Danielle Gant, Texas A&M
Kalana Greene, Connecticut - may return to Connecticut for 2009-10 season
Shavonte Zellous, Pittsburgh

Small Forwards

DeWanna Bonner, Auburn
Marissa Coleman, Maryland
Rashanda McCants, North Carolina

Forwards

Chante Black, Duke
Ashley Walker, California

Centers

Only listed centers were Paris and Vaughn, above.


I'm sure a lot of those names are very familiar to people reading this blog and other blogs. Of course, some of this could just be old fashioned misdirection - Reeve has to know that other GMs/team personnel might be reading this post - but it gives an indication as to who the "really big names" are in the WNBA draft in April.

Angel McCoughtry a "Milo"?

There is an interesting article in the Louisville Courier-Journal about two basketball stars at Louisville - Angel McCoughtry for the women's team and Terrence Williams for the men's team.

Some relevant quotes:

McCoughtry came with even more rough edges. Former U of L coach Tom Collen, who recruited her, kept a one-way ticket to her home in Baltimore on his desk all season.

"You don't know how many times I was sure I was going to have to use it," he said.

She pouted on the court and off. She didn't take instruction well. She could not harness her ability.

The article goes on to say that both players are now "in full command of their talent", which I assume includes the ability to take direction.

The reason I highlighted this article is because of the "Milo" effect, about which I wrote about in an earlier blogpost. The point was that young or underperforming teams - and the Dream is both - cannot afford the psychological hand-holding that comes with mentally maladjusted players. They can't afford to make mistakes in the draft; they need players with as little baggage as possible.

Granted, Coach Collen is speaking about the Angel McCoughtry that arrived at the Louisville campus, and not the one that is a senior today. However, it's good practice for teams to be aware of "head" issues with looking over draft talent. There are already (unsubstantiated) rumors about Paris's laziness; I pray to god that if the Dream drafts McCoughtry that she doesn't turn out to be a primadonna.

More Potential College Prospects and the Senior Prospects Metric

Mighty, or midget, or both?

The author of the Chasing the Title blog - even though his real name isn't that much of a secret I don't feel I have permission to state it yet - has boldly gone where only a few of us out there are going, namely, trying to say "these are the players you should be watching this year".

It's tough, because it opens you up to ridicule. Trust me, I know.

As far as I know, there are only three people doing this kind of stats-based analysis: me, the Chasing the Title author, and bullsky who is the author of WNBA Draft Net. Our lists of players look pretty much the same; the only difference is in what order should players be placed?

However, there are time when our lists don't match. I see a player at the Chasing the Title blog who isn't even on my list at all! There were three such players named. That means that I go back to my little spreadsheet, put the stats in, and see how they compare.

Here are three players on the Chasing the Title blog that weren't in my spreadsheet. But they are now. Let's look at how my metrics rate them.

Jenna Green, center, UC Santa Barbara

Well, there's a simple reason Jenna Green didn't make it to my list: she's returning not from her first, but her second medical redshirt year. Which means that we'll be comparing her against a class of people who are actually two years younger than her. Green is two years closer to her peak value, which automatically drops her a lot in my spreadsheet's evaluation.

On the other hand, in her rates of blocks and steals, Green is actually quite good. Furthermore, in terms of efficiency, she does well in producing value per minutes played.

In terms of assists vs. turnovers, she suffers - but all players except guards suffer, so she's in good company. The strength of her conference - the Big West - causes her rating to take a hit because she performs against a lesser class of players.

In her "rebounds expected per 100 rebounds a game for both teams total", however, Green suffers. She doesn't rebound as efficiently as a lot of centers - some of those centers are from schools in conferences as relatively weak at the Big West. My spreadsheet looks at her rebound rate, concludes "this is truly sub-par rebounding for a center", and assigns her a big hit against.

In the end, Green doesn't even make the Top 100 of my spreadsheet - the two medical redshirt years hurt her even more than her rebounding. If you decide to treat her as players aged two years younger, however, she'd jump to the 50s on my list.

Laura Kurz, shooting forward, Villanova

I never liked the term "small forward". There's nothing small about most of those ladies. For Laura Kurz, we might make a relative exception.

Kurz is another person who is missing a year - she sat out a year after transferring to Duke. Kurtz, however, is young enough to compare favorably with her "cohort", so to speak.

In terms of blocking-stealing-rebounding, her rates per game are frankly not impressive enough to stand out overall. She has too many turnovers for her assists - she had 32 assists compared to 71 turnovers in 2007-08.

However, Kurz is small compared to other forwards at 6'1" tall - she'd be at best a Jennifer Lacy type of forward, with Lacy's D-class output. Could Laura Kurz rally grapple against a Ruth Riley-Ann Wauters combo guarding the basket, much less a Candace Parker-Lisa Leslie tandem?

It doesn't look good for Kurz, and I have her at #99 on my list.

Brianne O'Rourke, point guard, Penn State

In O'Rourke's case, some things hurt her and some things help her. She doesn't have very many blocked shots - even for a guard - but Kristi Toliver doesn't have blocked shots either, and Toliver is #3 on my list.

Furthermore, O'Rourke handles the ball well if you compare assists to turnovers. So where does she take her hits?

She actually takes a double hit because of one factor - Brianne O'Rourke is five feet six inches tall. Just like my spreadsheet doesn't trust anyone over 6'6" - the "Katie Feenstra clause" - it turns up its nose at particularly small players. The spreadsheet basically says, "okay, here's a penalty, now prove that you're good". Good players will overcome the penalty; poorer players won't.

Because of her height, it's harder to get rebounds - not impossible if you like to fight, but harder. In "rebounds expected per 100 rebounds a game for both teams total", O'Rourke falls below the acceptable minimum. When O'Rourke players for you, you don't have five players scrapping for rebounds, you might have - as Queenie might say - "four rebounders and one midget". Rebounding is a skill that O'Rourke can't bring to the table. It impairs the team and has to be made up for elsewhere.

This puts O'Rourke in the 50s in my spreadsheet. If she has a good senior year - and I mean a really good one - she might approach WNBA draft territory. But if her senior year is like her junior year, odds are she won't be drafted.

Making Use of Usage

Usage is defined as the percentage of a team's possessions that an individual player uses. Basically, it approximates the "space" a player takes up in the team's offence.

If a team only had five players that were exact clones of each other, each would have the exact same usage rate: 20 percent. The stat is estimated by:

usage = 40 x (field goal attempts + (0.44 x free throw attempts) + (0.33 x assists) + turnovers) x (team pace / league pace) / minutes played

Unfortunately, calculating usage requires two other stats - team pace and league pace. The problem with calculating college usage is determining what "league" pace is. I've decided that when I use usage in evaluating college players, I'll ignore the "team pace / league place" part - in short, by assuming that team pace/league pace = 1.00. This introduces an error in a statistic which is essentially an estimation, but as long as the rules are laid out ahead of time, we'll go forward.

According to Ken Pomeroy at Basketball Prospectus, it seems to be an iron law that usage doesn't change much over time. If a player is a role player in college, she'll be a role player in the WNBA.

Furthermore, there's another rule about usage, this one formulated by Dean Oliver. Players who have high usage rates - somewhat over 25 percent - are performing under their maximum efficiency. It makes sense, as they have to carry more of a team's offense. You're not seeing the player at their best.

On the other hand, players with low usage rates - 15 percent or less - are already performing at their peak. If their usage goes above at what they're used to doing, they'll perform less well. Low usage players are performing at better than their maximum efficiency.

The end result is that players with high usage should be rewarded, and players with low usage should be penalized. I went to my Senior Prospects Metric and decided to reward any player with a usage above 25 percent, and to penalize players with usage below 15.

Players with Usage Greater than 25 Percent

Angel McCoughtry, Louisville - 32.69 percent
Robyn Fairbanks, Utah Valley State - 31.35 percent
Krystal Ellis, Marquette - 29.01 percent
Sade Logan, Robert Morris - 28.27 percent
Kendra Appling, Tennessee State - 27.16 percent
Shavonte Zellous, Pittsburgh - 26.36 percent
Megan Frazee, Liberty - 26.28 percent
Kristi Little, Duquesne - 25.86 percent
Obiageli Okafor, Tennessee State - 25.79 percent
Shantia Grace, South Florida - 25.21 percent
Erin Kerner, Quinnipiac - 25.20 percent

That doesn't mean any of the above players are going to be great WNBA players. Which players had the same unadjusted-for-pace average of the 2008 Draft Class? Valeriya Berezhynska with 30.76 percent and Jolene Anderson of Wisconsin with 30.55 percent. (Candace Parker had a respectable 28.60 percent at Tennessee.)

Adding in usage to the SPM moves Angel McCoughtry up from #8 to #5 on my list. And here's my newest Top 25:

Some More College Players and the Senior Prospects Metric

So who's this "Mandy Morales" girl?

I've added the Preseason Top 25 players has sparked a lot of discussion.

I have my own draft list of over 100 players, but there were players on bullsky's list that weren't on my list. I looked at the one's missing on my list, and then ranked them using the Senior Prospects Metric.

So does the newest WNBA Draft website find some diamonds...or does it dig some coal?

Robyn Fairbanks, Utah Valley State

Strengths: Averaged 23.8 points a game for Utah Valley State. Good rebounder and shot blocker.
Weaknesses: Plays for a weak conference - as a matter of fact, Utah Valley State does not belong to a conference. Short for a center.

Projection: Will not be drafted. I have her as #48 in my list of players. However, she should definitely show up at a WNBA pre-draft camp. Someone should at least give her a chance, given the dearth of centers.

Lindsay Wysdom-Hilton, Purdue

Strengths: Blocked Shots. Steals. All of the great defensive stats that would translate to NBA success if she were male.
Weaknesses: ACL tear led her to miss all of 2007-08. She's one year ahead of the other players in development.

Projection: I'm a moron for missing her. I had to evaluate Purdue's strength in 2007 as equal to 2008, since I don't have the Sagarin ratings for 2006-07, and they're not on the internet. If we assume that Purdue stands relatively to other teams the same way in 2006-07 as 2007-08...she jumps to #2. A first round pick, and the highest ranked forward.

Candace Byngham, Louisville

Strengths: Biggest contribution in my metric is in steals. Also a good rebounder.
Weaknesses: Age - older players take a bigger hit. Furthermore, at 6-1, she's small for a forward.

Projection: I have her at #39, which puts her as a candidate for the third round of the WNBA draft.

Jhasmin Player, Baylor

Strengths: Few turnovers and high steals ratio. Something tells me she's a great ball handler.
Weaknesses: She only played 21 games last year with a torn ACL. Therefore, we're looking at a smaller sample size of games. Games earlier in the season are usually against non-conference foes, and the Big East was the baddest conference around last year.

Projection: #15. On the border of second round/first round. She really needs to stand out as a senior.

Aisha Mohammed, Virginia

Strengths: She's a great rebounder.
Weaknesses: First, she'll be 23 on draft day. She's suffered a knee injury. She has a lot of turnovers (even for a center) and she doesn't have many blocked shots at all for someone playing the five position.

Projection: #115. She's not going to be drafted unless some team is absolutely desperate for a relatively unskilled rebounder. We'll see her in international play if her knees hold out.

Marshae Dotson, Florida

Strengths: High steal ratio. Good rebounder despite her size.
Weaknesses: High number of turnovers. Really too short to be a forward in the WNBA.

Projection: #81. The statistics say that she'll be one of the last people invited to a WNBA camp, and one of the first ones cut.

Mandy Morales, Montana

Strengths: Excellent assist to turnover ratio. As in 129 assists and 69 turnovers. Furthermore, she was the leading scorer for her team.
Weaknesses: Only age and that some might look down on the Big Sky conference.

Projection: bullsky over at the 2009 WNBA Draft site really found a diamond in the rough. Her stats project her as a first rounder, and she goes to #10 on my list. Someone should keep their eye on Mandy Morales.

2009 WNBA Prospects, Part II

I'm coming back to the Senior Prospects Metric (SPM) and I'm continuing to make small changes in it. I'll mention the changes I've made:

Height has now been built into the model. I've found the heights of all of the players and made the following assumpions:

Guard height. John Hollinger makes distinctions between short point guards and short shooting guards. Since it's hard to determine whether a guard is a point guard or a shooting guard just by statistics (he furthermore makes a distinction between "short" and "somewhat short" guards), I've simply penalized any guard who is 5'8" or less. These "short guards" get a penalty which is 3/4th of the penalites that follow. The reasoning Hollinger uses is that if a short guard is really good, the other parts of the metric will overcome the height penalty.

Forward/center height. If a forward center is shorter than 6'3", they will receive a penalty.

The 6'6" ers. We could call this the "Katie Feenstra" rule. Hollinger noticed that NBA prospects who were taller than 7 feet were generally a sorry lot. These big men had distorted statistics because their opponents were generally shorter than the players they'd face in the WNBA.

I've penalized any player that is taller than 6'6". Sylvia Fowles barely makes the cutoff at 6'6".

Guards who can't shoot from the perimeter. According to Hollinger, a guard should be able to make at least 25 3-pointers in a season, which is about 0.78-0.85 threes a game, depending on the length of the season. If a guard can't make that many threes, they get a penalty.

Bad rebounders. In order to make this one work, I had to drag in a formula from John Hollinger called "Rebound Rate". I am not going to drag out the formula, which depends on the player's minutes played, her rebounds, and her college team's rebounds and opponent rebounds. I'll just explain how it works.

Assume that during an average game against College Team's Average Opponent, both teams have 100 total rebounds (that's a lotta rebounds!) Rebound rate answers the question "how many rebounds would player X get out of those 100 rebounds?"

Of course, the Hollinger Rebound Rate he uses in the draft prospects article...isn't the same as the Rebound Rate formula that he uses everyone else. I had to depend on a converstion from Frisco del Rosario, for which I thank him.

The penalties assessed are for:
* guards with a rebound rate of less than 5.0
* guards between 5'11" and 6'1" with rebound rates of less than 7.5
* guards 6'2" or taller with rebound rates of less than 8
* forwards with rebound rates of less than 12
* centers with rebound rates of less than 13

With no further ado, here are the 2008-09 prospects reevaluated.