2015 WNBA Players Evaluated Using the Morris Points System

There's an article at FiveThirtyEight.com that had me thinking.  It was written about a year ago and it was called "The Hidden Value of the NBA Steal."  The point the writer makes is that if you want the best indicator of value a player has to a game, it's to look at how many steals he has.

Through his math, he concluded that with all other box score stats being equal

* an extra rebound is worth 1.7 points
* an extra assist is worth 2.2 points
* (one less) turnover is worth 5.4 points
* an extra block is worth 6.1 points
* a extra steal is worth 9.1 points.

For example, if a player averages 16 points and two steals per game, this player has the same impact - all else being equal - as a player that averages 25 points per game but just one steal.  If the first player and the second player are both missing from their teams, we expect the two teams to decline similarly.

The writer has no explanation for why an extra steal is worth 9.1 extra points.  You can come up with all kinds of theories.  Maybe a player who has more steals plays a lot better defense.  Maybe they're just smarter.  Maybe it's because that unlike rebounds, a certain number of which will go to a player because they happened to be in the right place in the right time, players have to make steals happen.  Steals can't be "replaced".

So even though the results of this NBA study might not be transferable to the WNBA, I figured what the hell.  Let's create an "average" WNBA player who has

8 points
3 rebounds
2 assists
1 turnovers
0 blocks
1 steal

This player will earn zero points in the system.  This is the per/game amount scored by the average WNBA player, aggregated over all games.

For every rebound past 3 rebounds, we'll give the player 1.7 points
For every assist past 2 assists, we'll give the player 2.2 points

...

and so on.

So a player that had the same statline as above but one extra rebound would score a +1.7.  A player who had one extra rebound and one extra assists would score a +4.1. (1.7 + 2.2.)  If the player has the same stateline as above but one few rebound, she would score a -1.7.

Let's call these points Morris Points after the author of the article above, Benjamin Morris.  So under this system, who are the highest ranking players per game and the lowest ranking?

(See table at bottom of post for results.)

The next question becomes, "Do the numbers pass the smell test? IF I were to present the first five or first ten players on this list as the WNBA's best players in 2015, would you believe it?"

It seems believable.

* It gives Candace Parker the highest rating at +44.22.  Note that this is a "per game" rating, so it doesn't imply that Parker is the MVP, merely that the Sparks are hurt more missing Parker than Chicago is hurt missing Delle Donne.  The second half of the season certainly proved that.

* At #2 is Delle Donne with +35.24.  Delle Donne is the MVP.

* We see some familiar names - Griner, Moore, CAtchings, McCoughtry - that we think of when we think of the best players.

* It has Sancho Lyttle ranked as #5 on a per-game basis, which explains the tailspin the Dream went in when she was off the roster.

* It puts Skylar Diggins at #10, which explains how much Tulsa was hurt by not having her.

* It puts Kiah Stokes at #21, and Jewell Loyd at #72.  The Morris Points system values Ramu Tokashiki over Jewell Loyd.  It gives both Tokashiki and Loyd negative value.  Loyd's turnovers and lack of steals really hurt her.

Does this "prove" anything?  I don't know. But it is good to talk about during the off-season.

1		LAS	Candace Parker	44.22
2		CHI	Elena Delle Donne	35.24
3		PHO	Brittney Griner	26.33
4		MIN	Maya Moore	25.86
5		ATL	Sancho Lyttle	23.41
6		IND	Tamika Catchings	21.45
7		ATL	Angel McCoughtry	19.54
8		PHO	DeWanna Bonner	19.05
9		MIN	Sylvia Fowles	18.26
10		TUL	Skylar Diggins	17.50
11		NYL	Epiphanny Prince	16.86
12		WAS	Emma Meesseman	14.05
13		CON	Alex Bentley	13.92
14		TUL	Riquna Williams	13.76
15		LAS	Nneka Ogwumike	13.60
16		NYL	Tina Charles	13.16
17		CHI	Courtney Vandersloot	12.77
18		WAS	LaToya Sanders	12.03
19		LAS	Jantel Lavender	11.00
20		MIN	Rebekkah Brunson	10.86
21		NYL	Kiah Stokes	9.79
22		SAS	Jia Perkins	9.61
23		TUL	Courtney Paris	9.22
24		PHO	Candice Dupree	8.95
25		CHI	Cappie Pondexter	7.04
26		CON	Kelsey Bone	6.58
27		TUL	Karima Christmas	6.33
28		CHI	Jessica Breland	6.08
29		SAS	Sophia Young	5.93
30		IND	Shenise Johnson	4.88
31		ATL	Tiffany Hayes	4.39
32		TUL	Plenette Pierson	4.21
33		TUL	Odyssey Sims	4.11
34		TOT	Erika de Souza	3.70
35		MIN	Seimone Augustus	3.48
36		SAS	Jayne Appel	3.24
37		CON	Jasmine Thomas	3.19
38		WAS	Stefanie Dolson	3.15
39		SEA	Crystal Langhorne	2.99
40		SAS	Kayla McBride	2.94
41		LAS	Alana Beard	2.47
42		CON	Alyssa Thomas	2.32
43		IND	Marissa Coleman	1.76
44		WAS	Kara Lawson	1.39
45		NYL	Rebecca Allen	1.10
46		SEA	Sue Bird	0.38
47		CON	Camille Little	-0.10
48		IND	Shavonte Zellous	-0.22
49		PHO	Monique Currie	-0.77
50		LAS	Kristi Toliver	-1.24
51		LAS	Erin Phillips	-1.31
52		IND	Erlana Larkins	-1.57
53		ATL	Cierra Burdick	-1.65
54		ATL	Matee Ajavon	-1.73
55		WAS	Tierra Ruffin-Pratt	-1.78
56		MIN	Anna Cruz	-1.85
57		PHO	Mistie Bass	-2.16
58		WAS	Ivory Latta	-2.24
59		SEA	Abby Bishop	-2.48
60		NYL	Brittany Boyd	-2.49
61		PHO	Leilani Mitchell	-2.54
62		SEA	Ramu Tokashiki	-2.75
63		TOT	Damiris Dantas	-2.97
64		MIN	Lindsay Whalen	-3.11
65		NYL	Sugar Rodgers	-3.61
66		IND	Briann January	-3.63
67		SAS	Danielle Robinson	-3.87
68		SEA	Alysha Clark	-3.93
69		CHI	Clarissa Dos Santos	-4.28
70		TOT	Kalana Greene	-4.30
71		CHI	Allie Quigley	-4.37
72		SEA	Jewell Loyd	-4.55
73		ATL	Carla Cortijo	-4.75
74		WAS	Natasha Cloud	-4.87
75		NYL	Carolyn Swords	-5.16
76		MIN	Asjha Jones	-5.36
77		WAS	Tayler Hill	-5.40
78		CON	Shekinna Stricklen	-5.55
79		SAS	Alex Montgomery	-5.58
80		NYL	Tanisha Wright	-5.66
81		IND	Natalie Achonwa	-5.76
82		LAS	Ana Dabovic	-5.80
83		LAS	Marianna Tolo	-5.82
84		LAS	Temeka Johnson	-6.08
85		PHO	Cayla Francis	-6.09
86		TOT	Renee Montgomery	-6.23
87		CON	Elizabeth Williams	-6.23
88		SEA	Jenna O'Hea	-6.34
89		CHI	Tamera Young	-6.49
90		CON	Kayla Pedersen	-6.62
91		IND	Lynetta Kizer	-6.83
92		SAS	Sydney Colson	-6.99
93		CON	Chelsea Gray	-7.02
94		TUL	Vicki Baugh	-7.38
95		PHO	Noelle Quinn	-7.42
96		SEA	Markeisha Gatling	-7.43
97		ATL	Shoni Schimmel	-7.51
98		ATL	Aneika Henry	-7.58
99		WAS	Kia Vaughn	-7.59
100		SAS	Danielle Adams	-7.66
101		TOT	Jennifer Lacy	-7.69
102		MIN	Devereaux Peters	-8.03
103		IND	Layshia Clarendon	-8.12
104		TUL	Tiffany Jackson	-8.53
105		NYL	Essence Carson	-8.62
106		SAS	Dearica Hamby	-8.92
107		TUL	Brianna Kiesel	-9.19
108		SEA	Angel Goodrich	-9.38
109		SAS	Kayla Alexander	-9.40
110		IND	Natasha Howard	-10.06
111		PHO	Alex Harden	-10.58
112		TUL	Amanda Zahui B.	-10.68
113		CHI	Betnijah Laney	-10.69
114		TUL	Jordan Hooper	-10.71
115		CHI	Cheyenne Parker	-10.85
116		ATL	Roneeka Hodges	-11.00
117		WAS	Bria Hartley	-11.28
118		SAS	Valeriane Ayayi	-11.67
119		IND	Maggie Lucas	-11.68
120		CON	Kelly Faris	-11.76
121		WAS	Armintie Herrington	-12.37
122		LAS	Jennifer Hamson	-12.37
123		NYL	Swin Cash	-12.46
124		PHO	Tess Madgen	-12.48
125		LAS	Crystal Bradford	-12.52
126		TOT	Reshanda Gray	-12.67
127		SEA	Quanitra Hollingsworth	-12.82
128		TUL	Theresa Plaisance	-12.89
129		CHI	Jamierra Faulkner	-12.90
130		LAS	Farhiya Abdi	-13.12
131		WAS	Kayla Thornton	-13.35
132		MIN	Tricia Liston	-13.45
133		IND	Jeanette Pohlen	-13.48
134		TOT	Erica Wheeler	-13.86
135		CON	Nikki Greene	-14.15
136		SEA	Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis	-14.25
137		NYL	Candice Wiggins	-14.58
138		ATL	DeLisha Milton-Jones	-14.68
139		ATL	Sydney Carter	-14.69
140		CHI	Sasha Goodlett	-14.88
141		TOT	Samantha Logic	-15.23
142		PHO	Marta Xargay	-15.38
143		ATL	Nadia Colhado	-15.48
144		NYL	Avery Warley	-15.97
145		IND	Briana Gilbreath-Butler	-16.13
146		LAS	Andrea Hoover	-16.17
147		PHO	Shameka Christon	-16.21
148		CHI	Victoria Macaulay	-16.48
149		MIN	Jennifer O'Neill	-16.62
150		WAS	Ally Malott	-16.89
151		MIN	Monica Wright	-17.01
152		CHI	Jacki Gemelos	-17.06
153		LAS	Jasmine Lister	-17.70
154		PHO	Tiffany Bias	-18.44
155		LAS	Courtney Clements	-19.50
156		MIN	Shae Kelley	-19.70
157		TOT	Brittany Hrynko	-21.37
158		CON	Inga Orekhova	-22.13
159		LAS	Michelle Snow	-23.40