Is Brittney Griner the "Killer App" for the WNBA?

There's no one to compare her to.

In Steve Tally's Almost America, he refers to Babe Ruth as the "killer app" for radio. A killer app is a piece of software that is so attractive that people will buy the hardware just to be able to use the software. According to Tally, people would purchase radios who had never purchased them before just to hear about (since they couldn't see) Babe Ruth and his homerun-hitting exploits.

Babe Ruth absolutely dominated baseball, to the point where you can divide baseball into a "pre-1920" (dead ball) and "post-1920" (live ball) era. Ruth actually swung different - baseball in his time was predicated upon moving a runner from base to base to base. Swinging for the fence was considered to be inefficient, but Ruth showed that way of thinking was the way of the dodo.

I've recently read a Houston Chronicle story about future college prospect Brittney Griner. I'll give you some facts about Griner. She's 6'8" tall, and still growing, and she dunks - regularly - in high school games. As a result, a paper that has paid scant attention to the Comets in their hayday is suddenly languishing its love on someone who hasn't played college ball.

She's scoring 27.1 points per game and 13 times, her point total alone has either equaled or exceeded the entire point total of the opposing team. Some say that she could eclipse even Candace Parker.

I'm wondering if Brittney Griner is going to be the "killer app" of the WNBA. Even people who hate the WNBA are forced to pay attention. There are the inevitable comments about her husky voice -- at 6'8", what do you expect? Her vocal cords are going to be different. One poster to the Chronicle complained that "How hard can it be to dunk a ball if you're 6'8"?" - which is a complaint that could be made about most NBA players.

This might lead to people attending WNBA games just to see Brittney Griner. The naysayers might think "I hate women's basketball, but I have to see that Griner woman up close." Certainly, if she remains healthy and puts up numbers in college like the ones she put up in high school, you can see her as being a potential #1 pick. Not to mention endorsements.

Of course, this is idle speculation. But if Chamique Holdsclaw could bring in an extra 500 in attendance or so per game, and if Candace Parker's pregnancy makes front page news in sports, imagine what Brittney Griner is going to do to the profile of the WNBA.

Comets Fans Complain About Late Reimbursements

Those Comets fans who purchased season tickets for a 2009 Houston Comets season that never materialized are now waiting for their money back.

According to the posters on RebKell, they were supposed to have their season ticket cost automatically reimbursed to the credit card if they paid by credit card. Now, supposedly, that has changed and they will be paid by check. But the checks have not come.

They were also supposed to have their money back by January 2nd. Here we are at January 13th and there is no movement on this issue.

I don't know the WNBA's side of this story - I only know the side of those who posted a complain. But if the complainers are telling an accurate story, then I will use a word to describe the situation that comes from this very thread.

Disgraceful.

Predicting Nikki Teasley

When last we saw Nikki Teasley....

Nikki Teasley and Chamique Holdsclaw have something in common - a Los Angeles connection. Both Teasley and Holdsclaw played for the Los Angeles Sparks in 2005. Both of them would also end up skipping at least one year of WNBA. For Teasley, the reasons would be two fold: a new addition to the family (the birth of a daughter in June) and bad knees.

In March 2008, she was released by the Washington Mystics.

In June 2008, she had her daughter.

In November 2008, she was already working out with a college exhibition team (DT-3) and played a few games against southern DI colleges. Supposedly, she has also been rehabbing those knees of hers that clearly impaired her productivity which can be seen by Teasley's dip in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) between 2006 and 2007. (16.71 in 2006 vs. 9.79 in 2007.) By 2007, she was just playing above replacement level.

So what if she hadn't had the pregnancy? What if she had spent some time in rehab?

I went ahead and projected the 2008 season for Teasley, and then projected a 2009 season based on the 2008 season. The results are below.



The Simple Projection System hedges its bets based on that awful 2007 season, and rightly so. Maybe Nikki will be transcendent again. Maybe if Nikki's knees don't bother her, she might still be suffering from aches and pains. The 2009 season projects her as a slightly worse than average player, but still better than Kristin Haynie or Tamera Young. She'd be a backup behind Ivory Latta, but if Teasley is fully recovered they could expect to fight for that 1-spot.

Nikki is still relatively young. But Ivory is even younger, and can only get better with more experience. Ivory was great in Turkey, and I expect she'll be great in Israel. If Nikki Teasley expects to waltz into Ivory Latta's job, she'll have a fight on her hands.

Atlanta Dream Re-Sign Nikki Teasley

This was just posted at RebKell by WBD. It's not up on the WNBA site or the Atlanta Dream site yet, so I'll just repost it.

DREAM RE-SIGNS POINT GUARD NIKKI TEASLEY
-- WNBA All-Star Will Suit Up For Dream in 2009 -–

ATLANTA, January 12, 2009— The Atlanta Dream announced today that the team has re-signed unrestricted free agent point guard Nikki Teasley. Per team policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.

“Atlanta is a great city and I am happy about the opportunity to play again,” Teasley said. “The fans here really support the Dream and the front office has done a great job with adding some new additions to the team. I anxiously await the 2009 season.”

Teasley originally signed with the Dream on August 15, 2008, shortly after the birth of her daughter in June. She did not play during the 2008 season but stayed in Atlanta this winter to work out with members of the Dream coaching staff.

In her six year WNBA career, Teasley is averaging 8.7 points 3.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. She started 33 games for the Mystics in 2007, averaging 5.2 points, 2.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Teasley was originally selected with the fifth overall pick in the 2002 WNBA Draft and spent her first four seasons in the league with the Los Angeles Sparks, where she hit the game winning shot in the 2002 WNBA Championship. Teasley was also named the MVP of the 2003 WNBA All-Star game.

During her collegiate career at the University of North Carolina, Teasley averaged an Atlantic Coast Conference record 5.8 assists per game. She finished her career as the Tar Heels all-time leader in assists (728) and three-pointers (236). She was the first player in conference history to lead the ACC in assists all four years and was only the second player to record 1,500 points and 600 assists in her career.

The Dream will tip off its second season on Saturday, June 6, 2009 at 7 p.m. against the Indiana Fever. For more information and to purchase season tickets, fans can call 404.604.2626 or visit www.AtlantaDream.net.

(* * *)

I'll try to project her performance for 2009 later tonight.

This Week's Schedule

The semifinals of the Women's Chinese Basketball Association (WCBA) are scheduled and Russian Superleague play starts up again.

Wednesday

WCBA Semifinals: Beijing vs. Liaoning or Bayi Telecom (Game 1)

Thursday:

Superleague A Russia: UMMC (7-2) vs. Nadezhda Orenburg (4-5)

Saturday

LFB (Spain): Celta (7-7) vs. Extrugasa (2-11)
LFB (Spain): Ros Casares (13-1) vs. Cadi La Seu (4-10)
TBBL: Galatsaray (6-4) vs. Samsun (8-2)
WCBA Semifinals: Liaoning or Bayi Telecom vs. Beijing (Game 2)

Sunday

WCBA Semifinals: Liaoning or Bayi Telecom vs. Beijing (Game 3) *
Greek Women's A1: Paleo Faliro (9-4) vs. Megas Alexandrikos (3-9)

* - if necessary

Predicting Chamique Holdsclaw

So how good will she be for the Dream?

Of course, everyone is looking forward to seeing Chamique Holdsclaw in an Atlanta Dream uniform. Fans have visions of sugarplums as well as visions of Chamique Holdsclaw's 2002 and 2003 seasons dancing in their heads and that 2009 will be somewhat similar to those two seasons. Everyone hopes for an invigorated Chamique.

On the other hand, Chamique stopped being a starter in 2006, coming off the bench for the Sparks all season. In 2007, she played for a few games and then retired. She played briefly in 2007, and then retired. She played in Poland for the 2007-08 offseason and is on the Wisla Can-Pack Krakow roster for the 2008-09 season.

Playing in Europe, however, isn't the same as playing in the United States. Projections on Chamique's return will have to be based on what she's done in the WNBA, and not what she's done overseas.

I used Justin Kubatko's "Simple Projection System" from Basketball-Reference.com.

a) I adjusted all seasons to total seasons based on 13 games.
b) I ignored Holdsclaw's 2007 statistics and predicted how Holdsclaw's 2007 season should have gone.
c) Based on those results, I projected 2008 and 2009.

The final results are below.



(PER was projected using a different system, since PER is not dependent on minutes played.)

So what do we get? We get a general decline over the three years. Hardest to project is "Games Started" because it depends on the role the coach assigns the player. I don't believe that Holdsclaw has ever played a full season, so 27 games looks correct. The numbers at least pass the smell test.

On last year's awful 4-30 teams she probably would have started full-time. She probably would have added a good three wins to the Dream, but it would still have been an awful season (there's only so much one player can do).

She would have been either the first or second best player on the team depending on good you think either Erika de Souza or Betty Lennox are. Undoubtedly, she would have been the most popular player on the team.

Does she "still have it"? Well, she won't be a starting All-Star anymore in terms of pure talent, but she could make the All-Star Bench. Her minutes will start to decline because once a player reaches 30, it seems that the little light on the palm from Logan's Run turns red. But we will be definitely glad to have her.

Greek Women Stage One-Game Walkout on Team

This week, Panathinaikos beat Aris Holargou by a score of 102-25 in the Greek Women's A1 League. The box score is here. I wondered what the hell happened to Aris Holargou, and now I found out the answer. There was a one-game walkout by some of the players.

This was from Superbasket.gr:

(* * *)

The remaining players of Greek Holargos Mars is not going to fall in the first game of 2009 because of financial inconsistency of the association. It made a joint statement to explain the reasons and also to sound the alarm over the construction of women's basketball.

"Unfortunately, in our case, the pride eklifthike failure. We patience has stood the lies and promises, but the mockery has limits. We decided we abstain, we have forced the administrators to stop. We do patience three and four months. The same if you were late to pay in three or four days, would revolt. And because many do not know, for our basketball is a profession. At least in terms of obligations. With daily practice, even in the mornings. As for earnings, of course, not. Live with loans. With the risk of injury to elochefei daily. Α But the word''security''is not included in the liabilities of the association.

And all this happening in presumed fourth team in Greece. ... In a group that is in the time of fainal Cup ...

The defeat not only the players of Aris Holargos, but throughout the female basketball. It is time all those wishing to raise sleeves. The men did their struggle and vindicated. Should do the same and women. Do not mistake ladies and gentlemen. The building is steraio. And those who do not care, we must stop looking only after themselves. If burning the next house, at some point and will burn their own."

Life Kechagia, Aristea Maglaras, Konstantina Ouzouni, Theoni Tzegiannaki Sofia Kyriakopoulos, Ntenia Margari

(* * *)

Let this be a lesson to any ex-NCAA or WNBA players who have stumbled across the blog: if you play in Greece, make sure you have the money in hand. Paul Shirley noted in his book about how cheap the Greek Men's League was and how payment was always an issue. Looks like the women in Greece have had just about enough of this.

Greek Women's A1 13/2008 - Paleo Faliro 77, Paghiakos 61

Paleo Faliro (9-4) is busy riding a six game winning streak - if you count the forfeit from disbanded Kastoria as a win - and at home they were too much for visiting Paghiakos (2-10), winning by a final score of 77-61.

Indeed, Kastoria gave Paleo Faliro some help - while Paghiakos had to play on Wednesday, Paleo Faliro got to take the day off due to their no-shows. Another advantage Paleo Faliro had over Paghiakos is that Paghiakos's team is composed entirely of Greek nationals, whereas Paleo Faliro has ex-NCAA and current WNBA players on their roster.

The boxscore is here.

Paleo Faliro won almost every quarter. They led 19-14 after 10 minutes and took a 43-27 lead into halftime. At the end of the third quarter, they managed to stretch their lead to nineteen points (64-45), and Paghiakos just couldn't close the gap.

Paleo Faliro shot 56 percent from the field, compared to the 41 percent of Paghiakos. However, Paghiakos managed to out-rebound Paleo Faliro 33-26 - maybe Paleo Faliro wasn't trying that hard. After all, Paghiakos turned the ball over 24 times in the game, and they probably figured they'd just take the ball out of the visitor's hands sooner or later.

Three players scored in double figures for Paleo Faliro, and all have either WNBA or NCAA experience. Kristin Haynie had her best showing in the Greek league this year, shooting 10-for-13 from the field and scoring 23 points and seven rebounds. Teana Miller scored 20 points on 8-for-11 shooting and blocked four shots. Atalanti Tasouli scored 12 points and had five rebounds.

For Paghiakos, the bulk of their scoring was done by Sonja Dafkou, who shot 12-for-19 from the field and scored 30 points and eight rebounds. "D. Mastrogiannidou" (I don't have a first name for her, but I'm sure she has one) scored 11 points and had eight rebounds and five assists.

LFB (Spain) 14/2008 - Extrugasa/Gran Canaria (suspended)

My understanding is that there's a storm on the Spanish coast that is keeping the island team of Gran Canaria from reaching the mainland. This has resulted in the Extrugasa vs. Gran Canaria match to be suspended.

Don't know when it will be rescheduled, but it gives Iziane Castro Marques a little bit more time to rest.

LFB (Spain) 14/2008 - Ros Casares 94, Joventut 81

Armintie Price seeks out a basket.

In Spanish women's basketball, the story is "the rich get richer". Ros Casares (13-1) continues to put distance between themselves and their opponents with a 94-81 win over home team Joventut (9-5). If Perfumerias loses, Ros Casares will be in the lead in the LFB standings by two games.

The box score for the game is here.

Initially, the game looked like it would be a blowout on behalf of Ros Casares. After ten minutes, El Ros had a 28-14 lead, and they crossed the 50 point mark before halftime, leading 56-36. Both teams played evenly in the third quarter, with the help of an 11-0 run by Joventut. Joventut managed to win the fourth quarter by eight points, but it wasn't enough to overcome Ros Casares's lead.

Jovenut shot 46 percent from the field, but Ros Casares shot 19 percent, including 13-of-21 shooting from the free throw line. Both teams turned the ball over 25 times, leading to an exciting game with a lot of opportunities to score. Ros Casares would send Joventut to the free throw line 23 times, where the visitors would hit 19 of their shots, shooting which helped Joventut stay in the game.

Gisela Vega led all Joventut scorers with 28 points and five rebounds. Three other players scored in double figures, including Armintie Price (of the Chicago Sky) with 16 points and six steals. Murriel Page, a long-time WNBA veteran now playing with the Los Angeles Sparks, scored 16 points and five rebounds, but also had five turnovers.

For Ros Casares, Amaya Valdemoro led all players with 22 points. Erika de Souza scored 15 points and had five steals. The other two WNBA veterans didn't do so well - Delisha Milton-Jones (Los Angeles Sparks) scored 10 points but had four turnovers, and Candice Wiggins (Minnesota Lynx), a new acquisition for Ros Casares to replace Roneeka Hodges, scored only five points and had four turnovers in 13 minutes of play.

Tennessee vs. Texas

Some thoughts on the Tennessee/Texas women's basketball game on December 15th, which Texas won 73-59.

1. Despite both Glory Johnson and Shekinna Stricklen being in foul trouble, coach Pat Summitt managed to keep her team in the game.

2. Brittainey Raven is going to be amazing for Texas as a senior.

3. Tennessee can't shoot free throws to save their life.

4. During the Rutgers game, it was emphasized that Pat Summitt isn't screaming at her players the way she was last year - they're freshmen and sophomores, and she can't afford to break their spirits.

5. I wonder how much this game contributed to Tennessee's comeback win against Rutgers.

6. I liked the overhead shots that FSN Rocky Mountains used.

7. Unfortunately, FSN also cut out eight minutes of the second part of the first half. One minute, Texas is up by four, the next minute there's less than a minute left in the first half and Tennessee has tied it.

From The Cheap Seats to the Dream Seats

Becca and Michelle in their broadcast of From the Cheap Seats state that they might be traveling from the Pacific Northwest to Atlanta for Opening Day. Part of the motivation is to see Chamique Holdsclaw in a Dream uniform.

I swear, we're going to sell this one out.

WCBA Quarterfinals 2/2008 - Beijing 65, Guangdong 55

Who's that American girl in the front row?

You only need to win two of three in the opening round of the WCBA Quarterfinals to move on, and with their win over Guangdong, Beijing will advance to the WCBA Semifinals.

All of the higher ranked teams won the second and deciding game of their first round series. The semifinals start Wednesday and are a best-of-three affair. Beijing will end up playing either Bayi Telecom or Liaoning in the semifinals, and the first game will be played in Beijing.

It looks like Google Translate and WCBA have declared peace. The translated boxscore is here.

Guangdong took the lead they needed early on, and led after the first quarter 19-15. After that, Beijing's talent came to the top. They led 34-31 at halftime and held Guangdong to just 11 third quarter points. Guangdong would get to within three points in the final two minutes, 55-52, but Beijing would score 10 points in the final two minutes to close the game.

Beijing had the shooting edge, hitting 44 percent of its attempted field goals compared to 41 percent for Guangdong. Guangdong hit more field goals from 3-point range, but Beijing took more shots.

Beijing had the edge in offensive rebounding and in visits to the free throw line. The critical problem was Chasity Melvin who scored seven points and 10 rebounds in 39 minutes (she's listed under "Richard Nesti") but made six turnovers and only shot 28 percent.

For Beijing, Zhang Fan led with 21 points and seven rebounds as well as three block shots. Seven other players scored for Beijing including Jennifer Lacy, who started for Beijing and scored seven points (but committed four fouls) in 30 minutes of play.

Song Xiayun led all Guangdong scorers with 17 points. Wei Wei would also score nine points and six rebounds for Guangdong.

Funny, for a quarterfinal match, you think there would pictures all over in a country as large as China. Oh well. I got a picture from a lone Chinese blogger, so thank you! The larger version is here, and in high resolution, Jennifer Lacy looks really nice.

TBBL 10/2008 - Samsun 93, Panküp 66

Erlana Larkins starts a kickline team in Samsun.

Samsun (8-2) probably didn't think that they would be where they are this year in the TBBL. This was their first year coming into the league, and with league powers Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray dominating the league, they probably hoped they'd make a good effort and stay out of relegation. Instead, they find themselves in second place at the halfway point of the season with a decisive 93-66 win against visiting Panküp (5-5)

The standard box score won't give you a hint of how strange and exiting this game was for Samsun. Samsun took a 21-13 lead at the end of the first quarter and managed to hold that lead into halftime, leading 39-31. However, Panküp staged a third quarter rally, and managed to take the lead by one point, 48-47 over Samsun.

The lead seesawed back and forth, with Samsun up 53-51 after a Panküp field goal. Samsun then proceeded to go on a 14-0 run for the rest of the quarter to lead 67-51 after thirty minutes.

In the fourth quarter, Samsun continued its run, scoring the first six fourth quarter points to extend the run to 20-0 and take a 73-51 lead. Panküp would not recover and Samsun would cruise to an easy victory.

In field goal percentage, Samsun led 52 percent to 34 percent. Most of Samsun's field goal percentage probably came from that 20-0 run. Panküp attempted 25 3-point shots, almost as many shots from outside the 3-point arc as inside the arc. Unfortunately, inside the arc Panküp was only shooting 28 percent.

Adeola Olanrewaju of Samsun had a double-double with 11 points and 14 rebounds. Julie McBride had the second double-double for Samsun, but in assists, with 14 points and 10 assists. Erlana Larkins would have the third and most overwhleming of the double-doubles with 23 points and 11 rebounds (and also four steals). With all that firepower on hand, Alison Bales would only play 17 minutes and score just five points.

For Panküp, Nazli Guler led with 17 points and Laurie Koehn (a guard for the Washington Mystics) scored 15 points, the only two double digit scorers for Panküp. La Nedra Brown, who played for both Duke and Seton Hall, scored five points and five rebounds in 34 minutes of play.

Camille Little (Seattle Storm) and Lisa Willis (New York Liberty) didn't play at all. I wonder what's going on there. Perhaps they're late getting back to Turkey. They certainly could have helped Panküp.

Fans Will Get to Choose 2009 Atlanta Dream Slogan

This from the Atlanta Dream organization:

Now your idea could become the team’s advertising slogan for 2009 and potentially used in commercials, print ads and billboards around town. Fans can submit entries by visiting www.AtlantaDream.net. The deadline for entries is Friday, January 23, 2009 at 11:59 p.m. EST. A committee will narrow the results to four finalists and the winning slogan will be voted on by Atlanta Dream season ticket holders.

I know what my slogan would be....

LOYALTY UNTIL DEATH.

Of course, that slogan might scare the casual fan....

Kristen Mann Waived

Kristen Mann, one of the original Atlanta Dream players, has been waived by the Indiana Fever. She was traded to the Indiana Fever from the Dream on July 4th in exchange for Alison Bales. It was a damned good trade for the Dream.

Mann had a great season in 2005 with the Lynx, but her stock has fallen every single year since then. I hope that Mann can get back on her feet with some other team.

Sky Sign Erin Thorn

How will she look in Chicago?

Well, it looks like I spoke too soon about Free Agency. Erin Thorn was signed by the Chicago Sky to open up the Free Agency signings. It looks like since 2001, Thorn's signing is the earliest signing of a free agent - most signings don't take place till February.

Here are Erin Thorn's Player Efficiency Ratings (PER), followed by year of play and age (on July 1st of the indicated year)

8.83 - 2003 - 22
4.17 - 2004 - 23
11.77 - 2005 - 24
17.31 - 2006 - 25
13.22 - 2007 - 26
8.37 - 2008 - 27

The best year for Thorn was 2006, when she was a third banana on the Liberty. Since 2006, her stock has fallen to at least remaining in the rotation in 2007, but falling below replacement level in 2008. She's played at least 150 minutes in all of her years. Back problems might have played a part in her falloff in productivity.

Now, let's look at the 2008 Chicago Sky:

Jia Perkins 22.94
Candice Dupree 21.41
Sylvia Fowles 19.87
Chasity Melvin 16.53
Dominique Canty 13.56
Armintie Price 13.52
Cathy Joens 10.05
Quianna Chaney 8.33
Tye'sha Fluker 8.27
K. B. Sharp 7.74
Brooke Wyckoff 5.77
Brooke Queenan -11.13
Leah Rush -11.45

Well, you can't say that the Chicago Sky don't have room for her. The Sky had six players performing below replacement level. Thorn can certainly work her way into that that low-performing group of players.

The big question is "will she be better or worse in 2009?" I've been working on this, but I'm not ready to post on the topic of performance vs. age. I think I can say with about 70-30 odds that Thorn will be approximately the same as she was last year, with the 30 being a better-or-worse proposition. The Sky, apparently, like those odds.

Elsewhere:

* Seattle re-signs Tanisha Wright. I don't know if I would have made this choice. Do they really think Wright will become a better ballhandler with another year of experience? Maybe they just can't afford to sign someone better.
* Sophia Young is re-signed by San Antonio. That's a no-brainer.

Ethmar.Com Is Off The Air

I learned this morning that one of my favorite blogs, ethmar.com has just gone off the air. The reasons why are explained here.

I was very lucky to actually meet Ethan in person, and he's just as insightful as his blog indicates, if you've taken any time to read the entries. Not only could I read fresh perspectives about what was going on in the WNBA, but I could also learn a bit about wine, movies, and other things I might not have been exposed to.

I'm hoping that he comes back to blogging soon - either as a throwaway blogspot account or maybe at a place like Bleacher Report, where he wouldn't be expected to post regularly. At least, I hope he'll keep commenting and if he devotes any of his time to the WNBA that he'll share his thoughts in some medium.

Lindsay Wysdom-Hilton's Body

According to the Old Gold Free Press, Indiana Fever coach Lin Dunn said during halftime of the Purdue-Texas game that Lindsay Wysdom-Hilton of Purdue "has a WNBA body".

What kind of body is that? Any ideas? Enquiring minds want to know!

FIBA Europe Partially Confirms Candace Parker Pregnancy Rumor

From FIBA Europe:

"Candace will not come to Ekaterinbourg as she waits for her first baby," Vetra said.

Thanks to "HotForHammon" at the RebKell Message Board.

Here's a big question: why do we have to go to a European basketball website to find out news that should have come from either a) the WNBA, b) the Los Angeles Sparks, or c) Candace herself?

UPDATE: Well, that was fast. Congratulations to Shelden Williams and Candace Parker. We expect to see your child suiting up for the 2031 season of either the N or the W!