All-Star Game Viewership Drops

From Sports Media Watch:

The 2009 WNBA All-Star Game drew a mere 0.5 overnight rating on ABC Saturday afternoon, down 38% from a 0.8 for the '07 game, and the lowest overnight ever for the WNBA All-Star Game on broadcast.

Excluding events on FOX, the All-Star Game finished tied as the lowest rated sporting event of the weekend on broadcast.

I have no strong theories. Maybe it wasn't promoted by ABC - no hype, no viewers. Maybe people tuned out when they saw the lay-up fest. Maybe it means that people are less interested in the W. Maybe the time slot sucked.

Discuss.

De Souza Enjoys her All-Star Experience

Prodep has an interview with Erika de Souza posted. (The link leads to the translated version). De Souza talks about her All-Star experiences, but the translation from Google leaves a bit to be desired. Just a heads-up.

At two p.m. began competitions and three-point shooting ability, the flag was starting to fill up and as I did not take part, much enjoyment and fun to participate with all my mates, then started and began heating the great match.

The meeting was very like all the All-Star, decentralized, fun, the whole world to believe in attacking people for fun. I was very important and frankly I was happy to see among the audience many people in Atlanta and Brazil.

If you think about it, Erika de Souza is an international superstar. She's a major figure in women's basketball in three countries - the United States (where she plays for the Dream), Spain (where she plays for Ros Casares, an elite team in the Spanish league) and of course, her native Brazil.

(Thanks to the Painel do Basquete Feminino blog.)

Thoughts About the 2009 All-Star Game

I generally find All-Star Games (including the ones from MLB, NBA, NFL) to be unsatisfactory entertainment, and very hard to watch. The WNBA's version is no exception.

Why? It's an exhibition game, but unlike the exhibition games at the beginning of the year, there's nothing to fight for. No one's job is at stake and as a result, no one is really putting any effort into this thing. Winning would be nice, but losing wouldn't be a let down. This is true of the All-Star Games of all of the major sports.

During yesterday's WNBA All-Star Game defense was non-existent, and each side was pretty much given the opportunity to shoot at will. Both sides took 3-point shots that no one would have been able to get away with in a real game. I knew this was going to be a downer when I saw Erika de Souza not trying to get the offensive rebound. She had nine rebounds, but could have had more.

However, Erika and Sancho acquitted themselves well, Erika in particular. De Souza went 5-for-5 for shooting, and had 9 rebounds for 12 total points. Sancho scored 6 points on 3-for-6 shooting and 8 rebounds, and Erika and Sancho were the East's leading rebounders.

Swin Cash scored 22 points to set an All-Star scoring record, but that doesn't mean much as both teams broke the All-Star scoring record. The final score was West 130, East 118 - and this is a 40-minute game. If this were a 48-minute game like the NBA, the West would have probably broken 150.

My opinion was that they gave the MVP to Cash based entirely on the scoring record. Myself, I would have given it to Sue Bird, who had 16 points, 10 assists and 5 rebounds. But Cash came close to Bird, and giving the MVP to Cash wasn't exactly a grievous insult.

Maybe part of my problem - the West turned the ball over 19 times on the way to their victory. Also: the West went 18-for-39 from 3-point range, with the East going 11-for-34. Those...just aren't real 3-point shooting numbers in a game.

There was a lot of talk among WNBA fans about Sylvia Fowles's "dunk" at the end of the game. It wasn't a real game dunk, because everyone from the West stood aside and gave her a clear path to the lane - and even then, it took her two tries. If people want to see dunks, why don't they have an exhibition with the rim lowered to 9 feet for a "dunk contest"?

Oh yeah, that's right. ABC didn't show any of the pre-game festivities. Thanks, ABC. One thing ABC did get right, however, is miking several of the players. The players at least were having fun, and I found some of their in-game commentary amusing. Thanks to Becky Hammon, I now know what "ups" are.

Also: the East had three players wearing #20. What's up with that?

Preview: 2009 WNBA All-Star Game

Erika de Souza (#14) of the Dream at All-Star practice.

Who: The best players of the WNBA, minus some major names like Lisa Leslie and Lauren Jackson -out due to injuries. Your guess as to who will actually start is as good as mine. Expect Sancho Lyttle and Erika de Souza of the Atlanta Dream to get some court time.

What: It's the WNBA's answer to the mid-season classic. For fans, it's a chance to get together - the tight-knit community of superfans makes the trek to wherever the All-Star Game is being held, like a pilgrimage to Rome. You won't see any of these superfans on TV, but you can watch the game - some of those injured players are sure to show up. This is Lisa Leslie's final year in the WNBA, and the over-under on how many times Lisa Leslie's name will be mentioned during the game is probably at 100.

Where: The Mohegan Sun Arena at Uncasville, Connecticut, home of the Connecticut Sun.

When: Saturday, July 25th at 3:30 pm Eastern. Televised on ABC-TV. There will be some preliminary fun on the court but it won't be shown on ABC. It's the fate of women's sports programming - no lead in, and they leave immediately after the game is over.

Why: Well, for one, this is the first WNBA All-Star Game in two years. Last year, the All-Star Game was canceled for the 2008 Olympics. Now, it's back, and back in Connecticut.

I'm sure we won't see the players gambling at the casinos, but it's a rare chance for players that are normally rivals to play on the same team. It's also a chance to relax, as the game is an exhibition - but it doesn't mean the players don't want to win it. In 2005, the West team scored 122 points and Lisa Leslie dunked at the end. There's always the opportunity to see weird stuff during the game, so don't miss it.

Sancho Lyttle to Take Part in All-Star Pre-Game

According to a press release released by the WNBA, the Atlanta Dream's Sancho Lyttle will take part in the All-Stars Skills Challenge which starts at 2 pm ET.

I'll quote from the release:

The All-Star Skills Challenge will feature four teams comprised of three All-Stars. Two teams from the Eastern Conference and two teams from the Western Conference will compete to make a series of baskets while navigating an obstacle course. The team with the fastest time will claim bragging rights.

Team 1 (East) is comprised of Jia Perkins, Tamika Catchings and Sancho Lyttle. Team 2 (East) consists of Alana Beard, Asjha Jones and Sylvia Fowles. Team 1 (West) participants are Cappie Pondexter, Sophia Young and Charde Houston. Team 2 (West) players are Swin Cash, Nicole Powell and Nicky Anosike.

Perkins, Catchings and Lyttle. I don't know, that looks like a pretty tough team to beat. Good luck, Sancho!

Erika Excited About Being an All-Star

The WNBA website interviews Erika de Souza on being named to the WNBA Eastern Conference All-Star team.

Some quotes:


How special is this to be named one of the first All-Stars in Atlanta Dream history?

This is a big deal. To be in the All-Star Game, it is so important for me and for the Dream. Last year was so difficult; we were trying to give our best in the league, in the first season of the team. As for myself, I had two good games and then got injured for almost the rest of the season. So, this is the reason this opportunity is so important; it shows the improvement we are having as a team and me as a WNBA player.

(* * *)

Talk about leaving the WNBA after one season to go play in Spain and then returning five years later. You were an MVP over there, was it a matter of feeling like you accomplished everything you could?

I missed many things about the WNBA. I always look for the group results. It is true that Ros Casares have been winning everything inside Spain over the past two years. Another important thing for me, it is the Brazilian team. We have a young team and I still have to help my people to have good results in the important international championships.


Something tells me we'll be seeing Erika in the Olympics in three years.

Are Lyttle and de Souza All-Star Reserves?

The All-Star Team reserves haven't been announced, but Chamique Holdsclaw on Twitter is already congratulating Sancho Lyttle and Erika de Souza for making the list of Eastern Conference reserves.

Let's hope its true. It would be a remarkable accomplishment - considering as how the reserves are chosen by the coaches.

UPDATE: As Anonymous in the comments said, it's true. It's the first All-Star selection for both Lyttle and de Souza.

Go Sancho and Erika! Beat up the Western posts!

None Dare Call It Conspiracy? Diana Taurasi and the All-Star Vote

A bunch of stat-heads have been tossing the ball around regarding Diana Taurasi's jump from front-runner to third place within one week of All-Star voting. (I believe the time frame between the first round of voting and the final round was one wek.)

My first impulse was that the shift in voting was clearly a conspiracy of the WNBA to make sure that Taurasi wasn't voted a starter. Taurasi, as probably everyone knows by now, was arrested for drunk driving and was found to have a 0.17 blood alcohol level. The conspiracy-theory concludes that the W didn't want Taurasi as their headliner on one of the occasions where the media would turn its brief attention to the WNBA.

However, is this really true or not? Can numbers tell us anything about whether such a change is possible?

In the first round of voting, Taurasi was leading all of the Western guards with 21.6 percent of the vote. Suppose we wanted to find, say, the 95 percent confidence interval of Taurasi's true percentage of votes. According to simple stats,
we should be 95 percent confident that Taurasi's true percentage should be between 20.3 percent and 22.9 percent.

By that time, there had been around 150,000 votes cast. 150,000 votes is a good sample size. If you have 150,000 votes in, that sample size is good enough to determine the probabilities to about 1 or 2 percent or so. Taurasi was clearly in the lead, with Sue Bird far behind at 14.4 percent.

But at the end of the voting, 600,000 votes were cast and Taurasi's 21.6 percent among guards had plummeted to 12.3 percent. Even if we were outside of the 95 percent confidence interval, Taurasi's true percentage shouldn't have been that far off. What the hell happened?

Conspiracy! Clearly, the WNBA simply fudged the vote count.

Or did it? The problem with the first sample - the sample with 150,000 votes - is that is might not have been a random sample. If the sample was biased, we have to rethink the results. Concluding that Taurasi's true percentage was 21.6 percent might be akin to concluding that John McCain's true percentage in the 2008 presidential election was 55.6 percent...simply from counting Texas's votes.

The first returns of the ballots were on July 2nd. Let's look at WNBA schedules since then:

Home Games Played Before and After July 2, 2009

Phoenix: 7/1
Seattle: 3/3
San Antonio: 4/2

We notice that Phoenix's game schedule before July 2nd is top heavy with home games. Let's make an assumption for which we have no proof - namely, that voting is heavier at the arena than it is on line. If this is true, Phoenix players had an advantage at the first round that couldn't be seen in the totals. Phoenix fans inadvertantly stuffed the ballot box for their favorite players.

However, Phoenix would have only one home game between the first round results and the final results. Seattle would have three home games and San Antonio would have two. In short, Seattle and San Antonio had opportunities to catch up with arena-based fan voting that Phoenix just couldn't match.

If this hypothesis is true, it should affect Phoenix players all across the board and not just Taurasi.

Phoenix Player Percentages Before and After First Round

Taurasi: 21.6/12.3
T. Johnson: 11.6/10.2
Pondexter: 17.8/11.7
Bonner: 11.4/7.1
T. Smith: 21.9/12.6

The numbers hint at about a 6 percent (or more) drop at every single position except for Temeka Johnson. This doesn't prove the hypothesis, but it grants it some support.

Now look at Seattle:

Seattle Player Percentages Before and After First Round:

Bird: 14.4/14.5
Wright: 2.6/2.9
Jackson: 12.1/14.7
Cash: 11.4/13.0
Burse: 8.6/15.9

In every case for Seattle (except for Janell Burse) the percentage of votes remained pretty much the same between rounds. The Storm had three home games before the end of the first round, and three home games after it. It leads further credence to the hypothesis that first round voting percentages for a particular player and number of home games played by the player's team have a strong correlation.

I think I'm convinced. The only conspiracy was in the schedule that gave Phoenix only one home game between the end of the first round and the final All-Star vote. In short, there was no conspiracy.

Of course, you can still ask, "Why did Taurasi's numbers drop the most?" It could be one of two reasons: either the kind of voters who vote from arenas (as opposed to on-line) don't like Taurasi as much as Phoenix fans like her, or that there was simply an additional drop off caused by the notoriety of Taurasi's DUI arrest. Combine those two untested hypotheses with the illustrations above, and the "mystery" solves itself.

Starters for 2009 All-Star Game Named

The starters for the 2009 All-Star Game have been named. The winners:

Eastern Conference:

G: Katie Douglas and Alana Beard. Beard has dropped a little since I considered her an All-Star starter; I don't know if I'd still make her one. She was, however, good when the voting was taking place. Katie Douglas? I can deal with that decision.

F: Candice Dupree and Tamika Catchings. No problems with the vote.

C: Sylvia Fowles. You could always let Erika de Souza start in her place, but I think that Big Syl might be healed up before the festivities start.

Western Conference

G: Sue Bird and Becky Hammon: Bird, OK. Hammon? Either it was the Hammonites flooding the ballot box or Diana Taurasi was deliberately screwed by the WNBA. I call shenanigans.

F: Lauren Jackson and Swin Cash: Jackson, definitely. Cash? I don't know which is the bigger goofy choice, Cash or Hammon. Both great players, but not deserving of All-Star starts in 2009.

C: Lisa Leslie: Sentimental vote entirely. Not deserving of the honor, though. Maybe people voted for her because she was the only player they had heard of.

Oh well. The really interesting announcement will be the reserves. I'd like to see both Lyttle and de Souza named as reserves; I'll settle for one of them.

First All-Star Ballot Returns In

The link is right here.

My thoughts:

1. Western Conference Forwards: Looks like Pondexter and Jackson, but if DeWanna Bonner picks up about 200 votes she'll get the start. If Bonner starts, she becomes the favorite for Rookie of the Year.

2. Western Conference Centers: They're going to give it to Leslie, as part of the 2009 Lisa Leslie farewell tour. Wonder if they'll hand Leslie the MVP while they're at it?

3. Western Conference Guards: Taurasi has a 11,000 point lead in front of her former UConn teammate, Sue Bird.

4. Eastern Conference Forwards: The "Vote for Sancho" movement hasn't picked up. Tamika Catchings has a 13,000 point lead over Candice Dupree of the Sky. Chamique Holdsclaw is sixth with about 11,000 votes, putting her 8,000 behind Dupree. Angel McCoughtry has only about 6,000 votes, 200 behind out-for-the-season Plenette Pierson. Erika de Souza is dead last with 3,400.

5. Eastern Conference Centers: Sylvia Fowles leads here. Michelle Snow is last with 5,400 votes.

6. Eastern Conference Guards: They're going to give it Katie Douglas of the Fever and Lindsay Whalen of the Sun. If Alana Beard of the Mystics can pick up 2,000 or so votes between now and July 7th, she might bump off Whalen. Nikki Teasley is fourth from the bottom at 6,000 votes.