Shannon Johnson and the Keltner List

With Shannon "Pee Wee" Johnson retiring, I'm going to look at my version of the "Keltner List" for women's basketball and see if Shannon Johnson is a real "Hall of Fame" player.

1. Was Shannon Johnson ever regarded as the best player in basketball? Did anybody, while she was active, ever suggest that she was the best player in basketball?

She was nominated as one of 30 players on the WNBA All-Decade Team, and was certainly one of the best players in basketball. Johnson wasn't the best player in the ABL - that would have been Yolanda Griffith. I don't think that anyone said that Johnson was the best player in basketball.

2. Was she the best player on her team?

The Los Angeles Times said that Shannon Johnson was the best player on those old Orlando Miracle teams. During her 1997 and 1998 seasons with the Columbus Quest, she was probably a top 10 player in the ABL in both of those years but wasn't the best player on either of those teams - Katie Smith and Valerie Still were on those teams, and they were better players.

In 1999 and 2002 she was probably the best player on the Miracle, but then Taj McWilliams was better in 2000 and 2001. In none of those four years were the Miracle above .500. The last time she was close to being the best player on her team was probably in 2006 with the Silver Stars.

3. Was she the best player in basketball at her position?

Dee Brown, the former coach for the Miracle, stated that Johnson was the best guard in women's basketball "pound per pound" - I don't think he was an unbiased observer, even as a coach. Shannon Johnson was probably the best point guard during her era.

4. Did she have an impact on a number of pennant races?

She was on the Columbus Quest during those 1996-97 and 1997-98 championship teams, but those teams had Tonya Edwards and Katie Smith. The closest she got to a championship after that was 2003 with Connecticut and 2007 with Detroit.

Part of Johnson's problem was years spent with mediocre teams like the Orlando Miracle and the early San Antonio Silver Stars.

5. Was she a good enough player that she could continue to play regularly after passing her prime?

To me, "past your prime" means "playing basketball older than 33". Looking at her final two years - with Houston and with Seattle - she was good enough to start with Houston but Seattle had Sue Bird. I'm not that impressed with Johnson's later career.

6. Is she the very best female basketball player not in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame?

Well, she's not eligible for the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame yet, and won't be eligible to 2014. Furthermore, there are three players that could go in before Johnson - Natalie Williams, Crystal Robinson and Sheryl Swoopes - who are all better than Pee Wee. Furthermore, when Johnson becomes eligible so will Yolanda Griffith and Lisa Leslie.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics and achievements in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame?

She didn't win any national college championships with South Carolina. She won one gold medal as an Olympian in 2004. A couple of ABL championships. Looking at the total picture, Johnson isn't as bedecked with glory as some of the other Hall of Famers. It's going to be a hard case.

8. Do the player's number meet Hall of Fame standards?

In career stats for her WNBA career, she's 2nd all-time in assists (behind Penicheiro, even if you add Johnson's ABL numbers) and 7th all time in steals. (All stats as of 2008.) Unfortunately, she's 4th all time in turnovers (2nd all time among point guards) and 20th all time in personal fouls. There's nothing statistically that's absolutely overwhelming, although the point guard position suffers from a lack of flashy statistics - you could make the case that her total assists alone are a Hall of Fame standard.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by her statistics?

I don't know the answer to this one. She is definitely well-liked, but she also bounced around a lot in the league.

10. Is she the best player at her position who is eligible for the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame that is not in?

Yes, if she were eligible today. However, give Sue Bird another season or so and the answer will be "no".

11. How many MVP-type seasons did she have? Did she ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was she close? How many All Star-type seasons did she have?

I don't think that Shannon Johnson was ever close to being voted in as an MVP (pilight would know the answer to this one.) In terms of PER - a rating by stats guru John Hollinger - Johnson didn't even have close to a true All-Star season. She never won any of the major ABL Awards, but was named three times to the All-WNBA Second Team.

However, she was a nominee for the WNBA All-Decade Team and was consider one of the top 30 players of the WNBA after its first ten years of existence.

12. How many All-Star games did she play in?

Johnson was a four-time All-Star with the WNBA, and was an All-Star in each of the ABL's complete seasons.

13. If this woman were the best player on her team, would it be likely that that team could win a WNBA championship?

She was a great player, but more in a consistency sense than an "impact season" sense. If the other players on the team aren't as good as Johnson or aren't having peak years, I don't really think so.

14. What impact did the player have on basketball history? Was she responsible for any rule changes? Did she introduce any new equipment? Did she change the game in any way?

I don't think that's the case.

15. Did the player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character while playing the game? Is this the kind of person you would wish to be a representative of the highest level of basketball?

As far as I can determine, she's an all around nice person. You wouldn't be ashamed of Shannon Johnson.

Next Monday, a New Dreamer

Most WNBA fans are still in shock over the loss of the Comets. I've thought about the matter a bit now that the numbness is beginning to wear off.

I believe most of us knew from the beginning of the 2008 season that the Comets were in financial trouble. There were rumors of Hilton Koch not being able to pay the bills, which were eventually confirmed. There was the WNBA taking over the team in mid season. In short, if you had to put money on a team folding after 2008, most WNBA followers would have bet the Comets. If, say, we got news yesterday that the Liberty or the Sparks had just folded, we'd be having a very different discussion about the league's financial health.

The Comets weren't in a great arena. The team hadn't been managed very well. It had the advantages of a great foundation - you can't argue with four straight championships - but like a person spending through their inheritance, the maintenance wasn't done, the team got old and fell on hard times.

Some people are blaming the WNBA's management. My conclusion is that I don't know enough to make a conclusion. I'll probably never know enough, and we'll probably never know the truth until that great WNBA book comes out about twenty years from now.

It looks like 14 teams is a "hard limit" for the WNBA right now, particularly with the economy. If I saw further contraction, I wouldn't be surprised. Before people out there start bemoaning the death of the WNBA (or gloating over it), I really don't think that's going to happen. We're over halfway through the first "generation" of the WNBA - I mark "generations" as 20 year periods - where to the 11 and 12 year olds growing up in America the truth is that there has always been a WNBA. In a few years, you'll have girls' high school players who have followed the WNBA since kindergarten. Ten years later, you'll have the first "second generation" WNBA fans.

Wow.

Some Comets fans are in the "denial" and "anger" stages of their loss. When you start talking about a Dispersal Draft of Comets players, they become very angry. I understand that. But for better or worse, the WNBA is a business and the former Comets players need to know what their futures are going to be so they can start planning.

The dispersal draft will take place Monday, December 8th. If this dispersal draft goes the way other dispersal drafts have gone, the Atlanta Dream will undoubtedly get first pick.

Some of the players on the Comets are "unrestricted free agents". They can't be drafted. That includes Latasha Byears, Mwadi Mabika, Hamchetou Maiga-Ba, Michelle Snow and Tina Thompson. For the most part, this isn't a loss as three of those players are positively ancient.

The following players are eligible:

Matee Ajavon
Renae Camino *
Tamecka Dixon
Roneeka Hodges **
Sequoia Holmes
Shannon Johnson
Sancho Lyttle
Erica White
Mistie Williams

(thanks to Richyyy for the list)

Camino is an Australian player to whom Houston holds rights. Roneeka Hodges is a restricted free agent, and she can be drafted.

So who do you take if you're the Dream?

My player grades:
Sancho Lyttle: A+
Shannon Johnson: A-
Mistie Williams: C+
Roneeka Hodges: C-
Erica White: D
Tameka Dixon: D
Sequoia Holmes: F
Matee Ajavon: F

The player grades are based on the Wins Score metric. The obvious choices are either Sancho Lyttle or Shannon Johnson.

Lyttle is a 25-year old three year pro. Furthermore, she's a 6-4 forward, and if there's any place where the Dream has a gaping weakness, it's the 2 and 3 positions. She hit 58 percent of field goals this year, but her 2006 and 2007 performances weren't that impressive. Her rebounding has gotten better year after year after year, and I think she'll only get better.

According to Basketball-Reference, Lyttle had the #1 Defensive Rating of any player in the WNBA in 2008. Even if you think that basketball statistics are less useful than say, baseball statistics that number should make you stand up and take notice. Lyttle would undoubtedly improve the Dream defensively.

Two concerns: a) when she started 25 games in 2007, her performance was worse than her 2008 performance when she started only nine. The lower usage for a player, the better the reflected performance. However, her minutes in 2008 weren't that far off from her 2007 minutes.

b) Her tendency to foul is pretty high. In 36 minutes, she averaged 4.7 personal fouls.



Now let's look at Shannon Johnson. She's 34 and will become 35 in the 2008 season. She's a short guard (5-7), and how many guards do we have already? She has played a lot of minutes - seventh in active career minutes, 14th in active career games. (And we're not even counting ABL minutes.) She's great at assists, but she tends to be great at turnovers too (2nd in career assists, 4th in career turnovers).

Her pluses are that at least with Shannon Johnson, you know what you're going to get. Furthermore, there are intangibles to consider.

"Leader" is a word often applied to Shannon Johnson, but not so often to Sancho Lyttle. One problem with the Dream last year, sad to say, was the clubhouse. I don't think there was a player that other players could look to and say "take the reins". Betty Lennox was too busy sorting out her own head to run a first year team. Johnson could step in and run the offense immediately.

So who do you take? Lyttle or Johnson? I think our needs are pressing enough at forward to take Lyttle over Johnson. All the experience in the world won't matter if we can't agressively rebound. And how do we know that Johnson wouldn't retire immediately if she were drafted by the Dream? Leuchenko, Anderson, Wauters - the Dream had enough problems with injuries, Milos and no-shows. If Shannon took a pass on the Dream, what would that say about Atlanta?

In short, take Sancho Lyttle. I think it would be a good fit. Guess we'll know next Monday.