Shannon Johnson and the Keltner List

With Shannon "Pee Wee" Johnson retiring, I'm going to look at my version of the "Keltner List" for women's basketball and see if Shannon Johnson is a real "Hall of Fame" player.

1. Was Shannon Johnson ever regarded as the best player in basketball? Did anybody, while she was active, ever suggest that she was the best player in basketball?

She was nominated as one of 30 players on the WNBA All-Decade Team, and was certainly one of the best players in basketball. Johnson wasn't the best player in the ABL - that would have been Yolanda Griffith. I don't think that anyone said that Johnson was the best player in basketball.

2. Was she the best player on her team?

The Los Angeles Times said that Shannon Johnson was the best player on those old Orlando Miracle teams. During her 1997 and 1998 seasons with the Columbus Quest, she was probably a top 10 player in the ABL in both of those years but wasn't the best player on either of those teams - Katie Smith and Valerie Still were on those teams, and they were better players.

In 1999 and 2002 she was probably the best player on the Miracle, but then Taj McWilliams was better in 2000 and 2001. In none of those four years were the Miracle above .500. The last time she was close to being the best player on her team was probably in 2006 with the Silver Stars.

3. Was she the best player in basketball at her position?

Dee Brown, the former coach for the Miracle, stated that Johnson was the best guard in women's basketball "pound per pound" - I don't think he was an unbiased observer, even as a coach. Shannon Johnson was probably the best point guard during her era.

4. Did she have an impact on a number of pennant races?

She was on the Columbus Quest during those 1996-97 and 1997-98 championship teams, but those teams had Tonya Edwards and Katie Smith. The closest she got to a championship after that was 2003 with Connecticut and 2007 with Detroit.

Part of Johnson's problem was years spent with mediocre teams like the Orlando Miracle and the early San Antonio Silver Stars.

5. Was she a good enough player that she could continue to play regularly after passing her prime?

To me, "past your prime" means "playing basketball older than 33". Looking at her final two years - with Houston and with Seattle - she was good enough to start with Houston but Seattle had Sue Bird. I'm not that impressed with Johnson's later career.

6. Is she the very best female basketball player not in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame?

Well, she's not eligible for the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame yet, and won't be eligible to 2014. Furthermore, there are three players that could go in before Johnson - Natalie Williams, Crystal Robinson and Sheryl Swoopes - who are all better than Pee Wee. Furthermore, when Johnson becomes eligible so will Yolanda Griffith and Lisa Leslie.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics and achievements in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame?

She didn't win any national college championships with South Carolina. She won one gold medal as an Olympian in 2004. A couple of ABL championships. Looking at the total picture, Johnson isn't as bedecked with glory as some of the other Hall of Famers. It's going to be a hard case.

8. Do the player's number meet Hall of Fame standards?

In career stats for her WNBA career, she's 2nd all-time in assists (behind Penicheiro, even if you add Johnson's ABL numbers) and 7th all time in steals. (All stats as of 2008.) Unfortunately, she's 4th all time in turnovers (2nd all time among point guards) and 20th all time in personal fouls. There's nothing statistically that's absolutely overwhelming, although the point guard position suffers from a lack of flashy statistics - you could make the case that her total assists alone are a Hall of Fame standard.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by her statistics?

I don't know the answer to this one. She is definitely well-liked, but she also bounced around a lot in the league.

10. Is she the best player at her position who is eligible for the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame that is not in?

Yes, if she were eligible today. However, give Sue Bird another season or so and the answer will be "no".

11. How many MVP-type seasons did she have? Did she ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was she close? How many All Star-type seasons did she have?

I don't think that Shannon Johnson was ever close to being voted in as an MVP (pilight would know the answer to this one.) In terms of PER - a rating by stats guru John Hollinger - Johnson didn't even have close to a true All-Star season. She never won any of the major ABL Awards, but was named three times to the All-WNBA Second Team.

However, she was a nominee for the WNBA All-Decade Team and was consider one of the top 30 players of the WNBA after its first ten years of existence.

12. How many All-Star games did she play in?

Johnson was a four-time All-Star with the WNBA, and was an All-Star in each of the ABL's complete seasons.

13. If this woman were the best player on her team, would it be likely that that team could win a WNBA championship?

She was a great player, but more in a consistency sense than an "impact season" sense. If the other players on the team aren't as good as Johnson or aren't having peak years, I don't really think so.

14. What impact did the player have on basketball history? Was she responsible for any rule changes? Did she introduce any new equipment? Did she change the game in any way?

I don't think that's the case.

15. Did the player uphold high standards of sportsmanship and character while playing the game? Is this the kind of person you would wish to be a representative of the highest level of basketball?

As far as I can determine, she's an all around nice person. You wouldn't be ashamed of Shannon Johnson.

Cynthia Cooper and the "Keltner List"

So what have I been doing since the European leagues went on vacation and since there's no news in the WNBA? I've been working on two projects:

a) create an expanded biofile based on the great biofile created by RebKell poster pilight
b) use this file in conjunction with a statistical analysis of WNBA players.

Of course, this requires a lot of cutting and pasting from the basketball-reference.com website. Unfortunately, the info there isn't entirely accurate. They are very quick to correct things and are very nice and answer immediately, but it is the holiday season, so they won't get back till January. So I'll have to be patient.

I began working on the 1997 and 1998 seasons and began calcuating John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for each of the players. I wasn't following women's basketball (or basketball at all, for that matter) in 1997 or 1998, but looking at the PERs for 1997 and 1998, one player lept out.

Cynthia Cooper. Her PERs are not only much better than her contemporaries, but I believe that for 1997 and 1998, she was the only WNBA player with a PER above 30 in both years. To have a PER above 30 for a season should make you a "Runaway MVP Candidate" according to Hollinger's PER scale, and Cynthia Cooper won the WNBA MVP in 1997 and 1998.

Unfortunately, with the short seasons and lack of established statistical benchmarks for greatness ("should it be 5,000 points in a career? more? less?") it's hard to know - statistically anyway - how great Cynthia Cooper really was.

However, the great sabrmetrician Bill James created something called "The Keltner List" which is a bit more subjective. It asks generalized questions about a player and aids in the thought process for forming a case for the Baseball Hall of Fame. Since there is no WNBA Hall of Fame - yet - we can begin to argue the case for Cooper with some changes.

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

So we change this. "Was Cynthia Cooper ever regarded as the best player in the WNBA?"

The ESPYs thought so. I consider the ESPYs just one step above a joke, but when they started voting for the honor - in 1998 - Cooper won it three years straight. No greater a source than Dean Oliver - the king of basketball statistical analysis - concluded that Cooper was the best ballplayer in the United States. Clay Kallam had her as the second best player of all-time, meaning she was certainly highly regarded. (However, he had Sheryl Swoopes as #1.)

There are a lot of articles that have Cynthia Cooper as the "Best Player in the WNBA". The argument could certainly be made that the best was Coop.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Okay, was she the best player on her team? It's sort of an unfair question since her team had Tina Thompson and Sheryl Swoopes on it.

Let's look at the totals of Wins Shares from 1997-2000 for all three players: I don't count 2003.

Cynthia Cooper: 34.9
Sheryl Swoopes: 25.6
Tina Thompson: 20.0

I'll make the argument that Cooper was the best of the Comets from 1997-2000.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position??

I don't know if Cooper was a #1 guard or a #2 guard, and I have yet to sort out who played #1 and #2 in history. However, Cooper was the best in Wins Score and PER, but if you're looking for assists per game and steals per game, you could argue that Teresa Weatherspoon or Michelle Timms had more guard "skills".

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Four championships, all in the years she played full time. I'll venture a "yes".

5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Cooper was 37 years old in her final season, and briefly played at age 40. If she played that well in 1997 at the age of 34, I'd be frightened to death of her at age 27 or 28.

6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?

No Hall of Fame...yet...in women's pro basketball.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Due to the fact that she missed several years due to the non-existence of the league, we need to look at the percentage records.

She's 26th all time in field goal percentage with 45.85 percent shooting.
She's 22nd all time in 3-point percentage with 37.70 percent shooting.
She's 1st all time in minutes per game with 35.19. And only three players (Katie Smith, Jennifer Azzi, and Tina Thompson) have 34 min per game.
She's 2nd all time in points per game with 20.98. (Seimone Augustus is first, with 21.25, but that mark might not stand after a few more years for Seimone.)

I've seen enough. I'd say she's a Hall-of-Fame player based on points alone.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

PER, Wins Score, and the like capture offensive stats very well. Not so well defensive stats. You could make the argument that Cooper wasn't a good defender. According to Clay Kallam, she played at least decent defense. Defense defense + Hall of Fame offense probably equals Hall of Fame.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?

So who is in the WNBA Hall of Fame again?

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
How many All-Star-type seasons did he have?

She won two straight MVPs in 1997 and 1998. Since I don't have a list of MVP votes in front of me, I don't know if she was in contention in 1999 or 2000. The two MVPs alone would merit Hall of Fame consideration.

12. How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?

Cooper was All-WNBA First Team every year she played except for her brief stint in 2003. She was on the actual WNBA All-Star teams in 1999 and 2000, and the first WNBA All-Star Game was held in 1999. It's easy to imagine her being on several All-Star teams if her basketball career started in 1997 instead of being over half-over.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Oh hell yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Cynthia Cooper didn't change basketball in any significant way.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Well, it's Major League Baseball that has written guidelines. On the court, she never displayed poor sportsmanship, and other players weren't jealous of her accomplishments, the way they'd be with a player they actively disliked. According to Wikipedia:

In January 2008 the NCAA penalized Prairie View for NCAA rules violations committed by Cooper, reducing the number of scholarships for the team. The school was placed on four years' probation for "major violations" in 2005-06 that ranged from Cooper-Dyke giving players small amounts of cash to various forms of unauthorized practices. Cooper also gave players free tickets to Comets game, which is another NCAA infraction.

I don't know if this really counts or not.

(* * *)

In short, Cynthia Cooper-Dyke, in my opinion, would easily be placed in the WNBA Hall of Fame if it existed. I only wish there was some institution that would honor her....

...oh! There is one! Whew, I was starting to get worried there! (/wink)