"Favorite Toy" Projections of Dream Players

A long time ago, I wrote a post on Pleasant Dreams called "Does Any Dream Player Have a Shot at 5000 Points?". I'm going to revisit that post, as pilight keeps his projections page updated.

He uses a predictive tool modeled after Bill James's "Favorite Toy" to estimate a player's chance of reaching an important statistical benchmark. Let's look at the Dream players he currently has on his list:

Chamique Holdsclaw

Has a 54 percent chance of reaching 5000 points scored.

Iziane Castro Marques

Has a 36 percent chance of reaching 5000 points scored.
Has a 15 percent chance of reaching 6000 points scored.
Has an 11 percent chance of reaching 6263 points scored. (The current WNBA career record.)
Has a 3 percent chance of reaching 8000 points scored.

Sancho Lyttle

Has a 30 percent chance of reaching 3000 rebounds.
Has a 20 percent chance of reaching 3307 rebounds. (The current WNBA career record.)
Has a 5 percent chance of reaching 4000 rebounds.
Has a 29 percent chance of reaching 750 steals.
Has a 4 percent chance of reaching 1000 steals.

Michelle Snow

Has a 27 percent chance of reaching 3000 rebounds.
Has a 12 percent chance of reaching 3307 rebounds. (The current WNBA career record.)
Has a 9 percent chance of reaching 500 blocks.

Erika de Souza

Has a 3 percent chance of reaching 3000 rebounds.
Has a 6 percent chance of reaching 500 blocks.

Angel McCoughtry

Has a 7 percent chance of reaching 750 steals, based on her single-year of output.

Visit pilight's page to see how well your favorite players stack up.