Connecticut and Minnesota Swap Draft Picks, Trade Montgomery and Whalen

The big news in the WNBA is that Connecticut and Minnesota have traded first-round draft picks. Previously, Minnesota had the #1 Draft Pick and Connecticut had the #2 overall pick.

Trade:
to Connecticut: Minnesota's first round draft pick (#1 overall) and Renee Montgomery (PG)
to Minnesota: Connecticut's first round draft pick (#2 overall) and Lindsay Whalen (PG)

What does Connecticut get? First, it gets the #1 Draft Pick, which gives the Sun the chance to pick up senior center Tina Charles out of the University of Connecticut. Since Montgomery is also a UConn player, it looks like the Sun is stocking up on local players to help draw a crowd at Mohegan Sun Arena.

However, Tina Charles is no slouch. She'd probably edge out Jayne Appel of Stanford as the majority #1 consensus draft pick. She was #10 in the Boxscores Values for 2008-09, and most of the players above her were seniors and WNBA draft picks in 2009. Furthermore, 11 of the previous 13 WNBA #1 picks have been stars.

My prediction? Charles will be a great player, but you don't need a metric to see that.

Now what about Renee Montgomery? The player most statistically similar to Montgomery after her first year of play is Stacey Dales. The point guard most similiar to Montgomery after her first year of play is Matee Ajavon. Dales was at least an average player in the years before her first retirement; Ajavon has been less impressive.

Montgomery's rookie year vs. Dales's rookie year.
Montgomery's rookie year vs. Ajavon's rookie year.

Whalen, on the other hand, has been really good. I have Whalen as #25 in WNBA history in player efficiency rating (PER) among starters. She's a two-time All Star and is mentioned with Becky Hammon and Sue Bird among the premier point guards in the WNBA. Furthermore, Whalen will be 28 next year, and if 28 isn't a peak age, it's close to it.

So the question becomes "how good is that second pick in the 2009 WNBA Draft going to be?" If it's good, then you'd have to give Minnesota the win in this trade. However, this year's draft is generally acknowledged as a weak one and only five of the thirteen overall #2 picks can be considered to be stars - Griffith, Cash, Beard, Pondexter and Fowles. Given that, I think that the balance tilts in Connecticut's favor.

Of course, I could be wrong. And being wrong is the fun part.

Total Productivity Versus Marginal Productivity

Stacey Brook at the University of Iowa writes about the difference between total productivity and marginal productivity, using the 2009 WNBA Dispersal Draft as an example.

Brook's argument is that a team picking in the dispersal draft choose the player - center, power forward, point guard, whatever - whose value most exceeds the value of the player currently holding the postion. For example, if you have a great center, and the best player available is also a great center, you really don't gain much by drafting that available center. On the other hand, if you have a crappy shooting guard, and there is an average-to-good shooting guard available in the dispersal draft, it makes more sense to pick that average-to-good guard than the great center.

(It's hard to explain this without recourse to math. The math is in the link.)

With the Houston Comets folding, the Atlanta Dream got first pick in the draft. This was a long time before the arrival of Chamique Holdsclaw and Angel McCoughtry. The Dream was significiantly lacking in the post department, and Erika de Souza had been injured for a large part of the 2008 season. It wasn't just that Sancho Lyttle was a great post, it was that we didn't really have a great post otherwise. Picking Lyttle made sense.

Of course, the link provides a simplified example and doesn't take into account contract negotations, future draft needs or address any of the intricacies of providing a WNBA team. However, I've always been a big believer in increasing marginal value, so the link appealed to me. I think marginal value also provides an explanation for many of those mysterious trades in sports. "Yes, we're acquiring a sucky player. But that sucky player sucks marginally less than the player we're letting go, so the whole team gets better."

It's also great to see the WNBA be turned into a math problem. "A drink of alcohol increases blood alcohol content by 0.3% per drink per 150 pounds of weight at an inverse ratio. Assume that a player from the Phoenix Mercury enters the bar...."

The Newest Member of the Dream: Armintie Price

I believe it was Chantelle Anderson who wrote that trades were the hardest part of the sports business - you can give your heart and soul to a team and its community, but in the end, you're just a commodity to be bought, or sold, or tossed to the side. Two WNBA players have learned that lesson today: Tamera Young, and Armintie Price.

Young was a first round draft pick in 2008 out of James Madison University. Young and Amber Holt were the only players from mid-major universities to make the first round of the 2008 WNBA Draft and was the first player ever to be drafted out of James Madison. Things were looking up for Young, and the fans in Atlanta found Young one of the few highlights of the season, with Young's characteristic pigtails sparking "Pigtail Power" signs all over Philips Arena.

With a weak Atlanta team in 2008, Young was able to average 22.6 minutes a game and score 7.3 points per game. However, she only shot 33.3 percent from the field and 69.1 percent from the free throw line. The hope was that Young would improve over the 2009 season. However, the Dream signed Chamique Holdsclaw in the off-season and Angel McCoughtry was signed as the #1 pick of the 2009 WNBA Draft. With so many talented players to choose from, Young found herself fighting for playing time.

She suffered an ankle injury that took her out of several games. By that time, she was left as the last option and it looked like she would never fight her way off the bench. Her shooting hadn't improved, her rebounding power had dropped precipitously and she was still in the sub-70 percent range in free throws. Fans wondered if there was some sort of hostility between Meadors and Young, or if Meadors's pride - Young was a first round pick after all - was the only thing keeping Young with Atlanta.

Today, the other shoe dropped. Young was traded to the Chicago Sky for Armintie Price. Price was the #3 draft pick of the 2007 WNBA Draft. Price was a forward-guard, five inches shorter than Young and a lot smaller. It seemed like an even-for-even trade.

According to the Font of All Knowledge - Wikipedia - Price comes from a religious family - she's a member of the Apostolic Faith - to the point where she wore a skort during her high school basketball career to please her mother (she wasn't even allowed to play basketball until the eight grade). Price has a blog on Yardbarker and a web site of her own, which gives some details about her faith. Price needed something akin to a parental dispensation when she left for college so she could abandon the skorts. (The Apostolics forbid women to wear pants.)

She was known as a relentless player at Ole Miss, and was the only guard ever to lead the Southeastern Conference in rebounding. As Carol Ross, her coach at Mississippi said, "People want to put her in a box, and there is no box for her."

Price earned SEC Defensive Player of the Year honors twice over her four years at Mississippi. She was All-SEC First Team in her senior year, and was named as a third-team AP All American. Her final year was marked with a sad benchmark - the death of her mother from ovarian cancer.

In her first year with the Sky, she scored 7.9 poitns per game and 6.0 rebounds per game and was named the 2007 WNBA Rookie of the Year. However, her production and minutes declined every year after that. In 2008 she was only a part-time starter and scored 6.9 ppg. This year, she hasn't started at all and averages only 3.5 ppg in just 14.7 minutes of play.

(* * *)

So how can we evaluate the trade? I'll do it using three different metrics:

1) Total Adjusted Wins Score, which is not only an additive metric, but a cumulative one - which means it awards on volume as well as quality.
2) Adjusted Wins Score per 33 1/3 minutes - if you want a per-minute AdjWS, then just divide by 33.333333....
3) Diamond Rating, which makes a stab at determining how good a player would be if they had more minutes.

For Total Adjusted Wins Score:

Price: 6.2 (77th out of 159)
Young: -3.4 (113th out of 159)

Before we consider AdjWS the be-all-and-end-all of metrics, Total AdjWS considers Tamera Young a better player than Chamique Holdsclaw! AdjWS absolutely hates shooting inaccuracy and turnovers and fouls, but doesn't consider all that a player brings to a table. Holdsclaw might be the kind of player that defies all metrics.

Maybe we need Adjusted Wins Score Per 33 1/3 minutes:

Price: 0.65
Young: -1.69 (Holdsclaw's is only -0.37 - Holdsclaw's Total score is worse than Young's simply because she's played more minutes.)

And now, we'll haul out Diamond Rating, which does a lot of comparisons and tries to project what a player might be able to do with better minutes. Only players who have played > 2.0 mpg and < 21.0 mpg are eligible.

Price: 7.39 (34th out of 89)
Young: -4.14 (61st out of 89)

It looks as though the Dream might have gotten the better end of the deal. Before saying so, Young might have simply needed a better atmosphere to blossom. That just happens. Her first year, she was forced to play starters minutes because the team was so bad; the second year she got no time at all because of the people in front of her (and maybe, because of other factors).

The great thing is that a move to a new city means a new chance to make a first impression. Here's hoping that both Armintie Price and Tamera Young make those good impressions. Pleasant Dreams welcomes Arminite Price to the Atlanta Dream - I think you'll like our fans a lot.

Tamera Young to Chicago; Armintie Price to Atlanta?

Update on the latest breaking news. Tamera Young is about seven minutes away as I type this from flying to Chicago. Little Smooth is no longer a member of the Atlanta Dream, and the era of Pigtail Power is over.

The most likely candidate for being Young's replacement is Armintie Price, a 2007 graduate of the University of Mississippi. Carol Ross, currently an assistant head coach at Atlanta, was the head coach at Ole Miss during Price's final year.

More on this later, obviously.

Little Smooth is Gone

Apparently, Tamera Young either has been/is about to be traded by the Atlanta Dream.

According to Young and Holdsclaw on Twitter:

@tyoung11 And I'm up still packing........ Way too many clothes and shoes....

@tyoung11 I'm going to miss my ATL fam soooooooo much @shanna_monic @chold1 @jlacy21 @vetto @cjatl @addic_tive and my team and loyal supporters...


@chold1 Good morning. I'm headed to practice I hope today is a betta day. I'm gonna miss my lil sis @tyoung11. Wishin her da best on her new journey.

The thing is, we don't know to what team or for whom. The current candidate is Chicago. But I'm not putting my bets on anything until I hear from the DFO.

P. S.: Tamera Young might be (almost) gone, but her presence still adorns the upper banner of the Dream's website. I wonder if they'll get the game intro film edited in time?

P. P. S: According to Twitter, Young is leaving on a jet plane for Chicago at 10:30 am. Which means that the Sky have a new forward. But who do we get from the Sky?

P. P. P. S: It's definitely not Kristi Toliver or K. B. Sharp.

P. P. P. P. P. S.: I suspect strongly that it's Armintie Price. Price is a graduate of the University of Mississippi, and was a senior there during Carol Ross's last year at Ole Miss.

P.^6 S.: According to our esteemed commenters (I can't get Twitter at work), Young has confirmed the trade to the Chicago Sky.

Taj McWilliams-Franklin Traded to Shock; Humphrey to Mystics

From this link, via Rebkell:

to Mystics

Tasha Humphrey (F)
Eshaya Murphy (F)
2009 WNBA Draft 2nd-round pick

to Shock

Taj McWilliams-Franklin (F)

I don't know if I would have made that trade. Very, very interesting....

Kristen Mann Traded

The big news among Dream players is that Kristen Mann has just been traded for Alison Bales of the Indiana Fever.

We'll take a look at the stats to see if either side got a clear advantage in the trade.

Efficiency

Kristen Mann: 3.85 in 223 minutes
Alison Bales: 3.79 in 126 minutes

So we can see that Mann and Bales basically have the same output for their respective teams, with the caveat that Bales has played about half as many minutes as Mann.

Versatility

Kristen Mann: 1.76
Alison Bales: 0.84

Egad. Then again, Bales's versatility stats might be in a cocked hat. She's had a grand total of two assists, but she only plays nine minutes a game. For players who have at least ten minutes a game, the least versatile player is Lisa Willis of the New York Liberty.

Now, we're going to introduce a new stat called "usage". Usage basically counts turnovers, attempted field goals, assists (times 0.33), free throw attempts (times 0.44), multiplies the sum of all of those by 40 and divides by minutes played.

What does this algebraic mess add up to? It estimates "possessions used while on court" and tells how much the player participates in the offense.

Usage

Kristen Mann: 11.63
Alison Bales: 13.85

Here's an interesting statistic: of Atlanta Dream players, Mann is second to last in possessions used, contributing little to the offense in terms of minutes played. Whereas on the Fever, Bales is third from last. Bales contributes more to an offense in her minutes played than Mann does.

Furthermore, Alison Bales is 6 feet 7 inches tall. She's a center and she's a friggin tower. Imagine a night when Bales and Feenstra are clicking on all pistons.

So was this a good trade or a bad one? We'll know more when Bales gets more minutes. Who knows, it might be for the best.

Ivory Latta will be interested in reuniting with Allison Bales. Of course, they've met before....




Postscript: Usage values for all Dream players:

Lennox: 29.58 (fourth in WNBA)
Terry: 20.69 (all teams)
Latta: 20.28
Feenstra: 20.06
Castro Marques: 19.00
Lovelace: 18.24
Young: 18.23
Lacy: 18.17
De Souza: 15.66
Nnamaka: 14.78
Haynie: 14.69
(Mann: 11.63)
Strother: 7.25 (last in WNBA)

Camille Little Traded to Storm

The big news among Atlanta Dream fans is that Camille Little just got traded to the Seattle Storm for a second round draft pick in 2009. Of course, we're not going to know if this is a brilliant move until 2009.

Right now, I have Little as somewhere on the best-to-worst chart in the Jennifer Lacy/Izi Castro Marques area. She's not a starter. It's not as if Betty Lennox went back to the Storm. And certainly, the Dream can finish dead last in the Eastern Conference just as easily without Little as with her. With coach Maryann Meadors seemingly unable to settle on a consistent rotation, it means that everyone else will get that much more playing time until Erika DeSousa returns.

So how much will we get for Little when 2009 comes around? I'm looking at the second round of last year's draft -- not much of an analysis, I'd have to look at the second rounds of all drafts. Let's assume that the Storm finish in the middle of the pack. So far, there have been only three quality players to emerge from the second round of 2008: Nicky Anosike of the Lynx, Erica White of the Comets and maybe Leilani Mitchell of the Mercury. After the seventh pick, only Mitchell was available of those three above. If there's an Anosike player later in the draft, it's going to be very hard for Meadors to find her.

Another complication is the affect this will have on Ivory Latta. Latta and Little were teammates on the North Carolina women's team, and theoretically know each other very well. Were they friends? Hard to tell. Maybe Ivory will be pissed that Little got traded; maybe she's glad to be rid of her.

In short, we can't tell if this trade is going to be a barn burner, but we can't tell if it will be a bust, either. Who knows? Maybe Meadors is expecting the Storm to bottom out and for us to move up in the second round. (/joke)