Fourth and Eight

Bob Corwin posted at RebKell that Danielle Donehew, the Executive Vice President of Operations and Finance for the Atlanta Dream, has accepted a job with the Big East Conference as their Associate Commissioner, Women's Basketball.

At the Dream, Donehew had a strong presence in the Atlanta community as well as the internal workings of the franchise, including the start-up phase of the organization. She managed the basketball operations side including, but not limited to, staff recruitment, financial implementation, contracts, payables, organization of team travel and arena management liaison. Donehew headed up all broadcasting efforts for television, radio and the Internet, along with managing the talent and production.

One way you can tell that a franchise/league/company is on the ropes is when top personnel begin to leave. (The colloquialism is "the rats are leaving the sinking ship".) For all we know, this move might have been in the works for a long, long time. After all, if you were an executive for a women's basketball organization, and someone asked you to be the #2 person for Big East women's basketball, wouldn't you accept a job?

Still, that can't look good, that someone so important to the organization has decided to leave now. Combined with the fact that the season ticket holders have heard nothing from the Dream - not even banalities - and the fact that Tulsa has officially put in its paperwork to become a franchise, it foretells a convergence of events that looks very, very ugly. Dark clouds don't always mean rain, but you'd better have an umbrella.

Once again - if there is anyone in the Dream front office that is going to speak up and tell us something about the future of the Atlanta Dream - that time is now. Please.

Then again, there might not anything to say. Nothing good, anyway.

Making predictions is a loser's game. Ron Terwilliger might decide to put in another year. Kathy Betty might buy the franchise, or someone else. The Dream might rework its lease with Philips Arena. But right now, it's fourth and eight, and I'm hearing the rumbling cleats of the defense closing in.

Dream Predictions for 2009

Predictions:

1. The Dream won't hit .500, but they'll get close. Despite all the talent that is going to be flooding into this team, the Dream just don't have enough of the pieces to put it together. I predict at best a 16-18 season, but with the Dream no longer rolling over for the Eastern Conference powers it will be Sky, the Dream and the Fever fighting for that fourth playoff spot.

If, however, the Dream has their best possible outcome - everyone comes back happy and healthy and no one gets injured - 20 games is not out of the question.

2. If the Dream can't win 12 games, Marynell Meadors will be fired. Owner Ron Terwilliger most likely expects results. He's signed the contracts. He's made the investment. With a #1 draft pick and Holdsclaw coming back, Terwilliger should hope for real improvement, now that Betty Lennox won't be double- and triple-teamed anymore. Furthermore, he has Carol Ross on the bench as an option if the team gives up on Meadors. However, he has nothing to lose by sticking with Meadors and seeing what comes of it.

And even if Carol Ross takes over, there's no guarantee that she'll succeed. You can't coach pros like you coach college kids. College kids need instruction and discipline. Pros need personality management.

3. Yelena Leuchanka won't be coming back. Meadors already has a seat warm at center for Katie Mattera. That leaves one or at most two seats left. With Alison Bales and Chantelle Anderson available, I suspect Meadors will settle for homegrown talent.

4. Dream attendance will either a) stay the same, or b) go up in 2009. Usually, you can depend on a sophomore slump in attendance - the team isn't new anymore. But if Holdsclaw puts on a uniform, you can expect about 500 extra seats sold a night, which should make up for the economic slump. (Expect those seat holders to be wearing orange, though.)

5. Holdsclaw will be great, but others will be greater. Holdsclaw will show that she hasn't lost a step and that yes, the hype is real. As long as she has fellow Lodge member Jennifer Lacy on the team, Chamique should be happy. But the new #1 Dream draft pick and even Sancho Lyttle have the potential to knock Chamique off the sports pages and with Erika de Souza (hopefully) healthy, it could be a really tough team.

6. Tamera Young will be traded or not make the team. There are three forwards with bullseyes on their backs - Kasha Terry, Jennifer Lacy, and Tamera Young. Lacy doesn't have to worry about her job. Terry will end up going, and its possible that Atlanta could trade Young for a veteran roleplayer. After an awful first season and a disastrous European outing, Young's position is precarious.

7. Who will not be back? Alison Bales, but it will be a mistake to let her go. Kasha Terry. Kristin Haynie, if Nikki Teasley is really all that and a bag of chips. Young might hang on for a 13th roster spot, but there are no guarantees. And, sadly, the Chioma Nnamaka era will be over in Atlanta.

8. McCoughtry will be the first round pick (but it should have been Paris). With Holdsclaw and Lyttle showing up, Meadors really needs to store up the guard spot - Iziane was a disaster in 2008, and aside from her 2007 season Izi's been unimpressive in the WNBA. But Meadors has her favorites and has rewarded Izi with a 3-year contract. Furthermore, Betty Lennox and a new guard would be fighting for minutes almost instantly, and Betty gets what Betty wants. Betty knows Izi and feels comfortable with her on court.

With no really outstanding guard left in the draft, it will be either McCoughtry or Paris, both of whom want to be the number one pick and accept all the responsibility that comes with it. Paris, however, has her detractors - apparently, Paris weighs too much, reminding me of another talented prospect who never achieved fame because of his massive girth - Babe Ruth. So it will go to McCoughtry, who will put on a show in Atlanta.

9. Expect clubhouse fireworks. McCoughtry could just go into a pout at the Dream if things don't work well. An old article indicates McCoughtry used to be a handful at Louisville. Combine this with B-Money's sulking and with Holdsclaw's depression issues and the Atlanta media (if they show up) could get a lot of...interesting quotes this year.

10. Expect Ivory to be Ivory. Smiling. Happy. Full of energy. If she plays in 2009 like she did in Europe in the offseason...whoof. We might go to the playoffs after all!

Predicted Lineup for 2009

C Katie Mattera
C Chantelle Anderson
F/C Erika de Souza
F Sancho Lyttle
F Jennifer Lacy
F Chamique Holdsclaw
F Angel McCoughtry
G Betty Lennox
G Iziane Castro Marques
G/F Ann Strother
G Ivory Latta
G Nikki Teasley

The AP Poll: How Accurate Is It?

Mechelle Voepel posted recently on her blog regarding the confusion, anxiety and upset stomachs that the release of the preseason Associated Press poll causes in women's basketball. One of the problems regarding the poll is that it becomes very difficult to follow so many teams, and voters are taking semi-educated guesses as to which teams deserve high rankings...when they don't really know as much as they should about the teams in question.

As it turns out, I had some questions of my own about the AP accuracy and yesterday, I compared the preseason AP poll with the final AP poll in women's basketball over the past five years. I wanted to determine if certain teams consistently finished better than they were predicted to at the beginning of the season, i. e. was there a set of teams that was consistently underrated? Likewise, were there programs that were consistently overrated?

I looked at the last five years for every program appearing in the AP poll. I then compared the poll position at the beginning of the year to the position at the end of the year. If Texas Tech, for example, were to be ranked #9 in the preseason poll and end up ranked #13 in the final poll, Tech would receive a rating of -4 for that season - Tech was an overrated team that finished four positions lower than expected. Likewise, if Stanford was at #15 in the preseason poll and finished #6 in the final poll, Stanford would get a rating of 9 for that season, finishing nine positions higher than expected. The numerical +/- would be added together over the last five years and divided by five for a final ranking.

There were two problems, both depending on the data. First, the problem of teams falling out of the poll completely by the end of the year. Second, the problem of teams appearing in the final poll that didn't appear at all in the preseason poll. I had values for the "#26 and further" positions for four of the previous five preseasons, but the number of votes teams receive below #25 drops off very rapidly and can't be considered very reliable.

Therefore, if a team ranked in the preseason poll fell out of the final poll, I gave it the benefit of the doubt and treated the team as if it fell to the imaginary #26 position. Likewise, I assumed that late-appearing teams had been strong all along (just not noticed) and moved them up from an imaginary #26 position in the preseason (ignoring the actual team that was 26th in votes received) and moving those teams up from the #26 position to their final positions in the poll.

I then looked at teams that have appeared in either a preseason or final poll in the last five seasons. Here are the five most overrated teams:

Georgia -6.8
Texas -6.2
Minnesota -4.2
Texas Tech -4.2
LSU -2.6 (tie)
Michigan State -2.6 (tie)
Notre Dame -2.6 (tie)

Any year where you were ranked in the preseason poll and fell completely out of the final poll is going to hurt you. Georgia was ranked #9 in the preseason in 2007-08 but finished a disappointing 8-6 in SEC play and ended up a #8 seed in the NCAA tournament. Texas was ranked #12 in the 2005-06 season but finished 13-15 that year and ended up losing to Iowa State in the first round of the Big Twelve Tournament - Texas went to neither the NCAA or WNIT postseason.

So who are the most underrated teams?

North Carolina 3.2
Maryland 2.8
Oklahoma 2.6
Louisiana Tech 2.4
Baylor 2.4

Looking at the rankings overall, one can conclude either:

a) the voters' preseason ratings actually match their final ratings very well. It's rare for a team, on the average, to be off more than three positions from their eventual final rating over a five year span of time.
b) voters make sure that the final ratings reflect their preseason prejudices - they remember how they voted in the preseason and don't want to be seen as straying too far away in the final vote.

Therefore, here at Pleasant Dreams, I am going to "adjust" the 2008-09 AP Preseason Poll, taking into account how voters have voted in the past, and how well past predictions regarding certain programs have been.

2008-09 Preseason

1 Connecticut
2 Stanford
3 Maryland
4 Oklahoma
5 Rutgers
6 North Carolina
7 Tennessee
8 Duke
9 California
10 Louisville
11 Texas A&M
12 Vanderbilt
13 Texas
14 Oklahoma State
15 Virginia
16 Notre Dame
17 Arizona State
18 Ohio State
19 Baylor
20 Auburn
21 Florida State
22 Xavier
23 Purdue
24 LSU
25 Old Dominion

2008-09 Predicted Final

1 Maryland
2 Oklahoma
3 Connecticut
4 North Carolina
5 Stanford
6 Duke
7 Rutgers
8 Tennessee
9 Texas A&M
10 Vanderbilt
11 California
12 Louisville
13 Oklahoma State
14 Virginia
15 Baylor
16 Arizona State
17 Notre Dame
18 Ohio State
19 Texas
20 Purdue
21 Florida State
22 Auburn
23 LSU
24 Xavier
25 Pittsburgh