The Hall of Fame Projector (2014) - The "Virtually In" Class

My previous post on the Hall of Fame Projector (see here) listed those players that scored 100 percent - those that would be lead pipe cinches to make a pro basketball hall of fame based on traditional stats, MVP voting, rings, and All-Star appearances.  We're only considering players who have played at least 160 combined games in the ABL and WNBA.  For those players whose careers ended before 2005, we give them credit for the missing years of their pro career.

There are seven players who scored between 90 and 99 percent, the ones that the HOF Projector method considers "virtually in".  Three of these players are active players, so with a few MVP votes or a couple of All-Star selections, they'll probably join the 14 other players listed previously.

Teresa Edwards (99 percent):  she was already past 30 when she played for the Atlanta Glory of the ABL and was selected by the Lynx in the second round of the 2003 draft even though she was 38 years old.  She has five Olympic medals (four gold) stretching back to 1992.  And even with this horribly scant modern pro career she almost makes it in.  Edwards is one of those players like Nera White or Nancy Lieberman or Cheryl Miller that you could argue is the best player of all time.

Edwards is already in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame.

Katie Smith (99 percent):  there were some complaints about the previous post - why didn't Smith make the list of Lead Pipe Cinches that got 100 percent in the projector?  Most likely, it's the relative lack of MVP votes and a fairly low points per game - the only players above her with fewer points per game are Sue Bird and Lindsay Whalen, and their assists totals make up for it.

I have Katie Smith has having played 568 games in her career across the ABL and WNBA.  The player behind her is Taj McWilliams at 538.  Smith's longevity alone should be a voting factor, and I can't see her not making it into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame.

Angel McCoughtry (98 percent):  Despite not winning any titles, McCoughtry makes it to the list on the strength of her scoring.  How many players other than Maya Moore or Elena Delle Donne (neither yet eligibile for the list yet) could carry an entire team on her back like McCoughtry? I see her being named to the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame someday, even though she doesn't have a reputation for being so angelic.

Becky Hammon (98 percent):  I think Hammon's lack of height gives her a boost - never has a player done so much with so little (so to speak).  Her overall assist averages don't compare to Bird's or Whalen's or even Cappie Pondexter.  But she was an amazing force in women's basketball and I see her as a Hall of Fame Player.

Seimone Augustus (97 percent):  A great mid-range shooter, but her problem is that she really don't have many MVP votes.  Having two rings really helps her make her case, but I wonder if future Hall of Fame voters are going to recognize her value.

Chamique Holdsclaw (92 percent):  She was at one time considered to be the Michael Jordan of women's basketball.  Unfortunately, I think most people think "what might have been" when they think of Holdsclaw.  She had really great moves with the ball, but her emotional problems might have eclipsed her game.  If you take her college career into account, however, she really belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Sylvia Fowles (91 percent):  I think Fowles's candidacy is hurt by the fact that she was the best player on a bad team for an awfully long time.  Idiot WNBA voters said, "We can't vote her for MVP if she's not on a winning team!"  If she had been on a good team, she might have one or two MVP titles already.  Maybe this is why she's decided to sit out a year; she figures that if she plays for the Lynx people might finally figure out how good she is.

Hall of Fame Projector - The method and the Top 14 Players

It's time to update the Hall of Fame Projections.  I used to do these for Swish Appeal, but since I'm not writing there now, I'll be adding them to my blog.

What are the Hall of Fame Projections?  The idea, essentially, is to see if a WNBA player has a career anything like that of an NBA Hall of Fame player.  We then assign a percentage that indicates the chances that a WNBA player, based solely on her pro career, would make it to the Hall of Fame.

It's important to note that we are not looking for the best players, just the players that look the most like Hall of Fame players.  So what do Hall of Fame players look like?

A big weight on "traditional stats".  The "traditional stats" in this case are Points Per Game, Reounds Per Game, and Assists Per Game.  Obviously, those three stats don't tell the whole story of a player - they say nothing about defense - but the Projection System weights them for two reasons.  First, those are the stats that get quoted a lot.  Second, when a player fades away from memory, and fewer and fewer people living have seen her play, all that's really left are the stat sheets to look at.

MVP Shares.  How many votes for MVP did the player get over her career?

All-Star Selections.  How many times was the player voted an All-Star?  Note that the WNBA occasionally doesn't hold All-Star games in even-numbered years, so when that happens I have substituted selection for their national FIBA or Olympic teams.

Height.  Feats by smaller players are more impressive than feats by bigger ones.

Rings.  Hall of Fame voters value championships.

A few notes:

* American Basketball League stats have been included.  For those who don't remember, the ABL competed with the WNBA from 1996 to 1999.
* Players who stopped playing before 2005 get added weight to their scores, as they lost productive years in their career to the lack of a women's league.
* You have to have played at least 160 games by the end of 2014 to make this list.  This is why Maya Moore is not on the list.  She will be next year.
* I didn't invent Hall of Fame projection.  The wonderful people at basketball-reference.com did.  However, they have tweaked their method to include Peak Win Shares, which my method doesn't have.  Maybe after 2015, I'll add that to my method.


So who are my leaders as of the end of the 2014 season, and what are their chances of getting into a Pro Basketball Hall of Fame?  This post might be stretched out over several days, so watch this space!

Lead Pipe Cinches

1.  Lisa Leslie (100 percent):  Two WNBA titles.  If she were a NBA player, she would have averaged a double-double for her career.  Three-time MVP and eight-time WNBA All Star.  First player to dunk in a WNBA game.  Women's Basketball Hall of Fame member.

2.  Tamika Catchings (100 percent):  One WNBA title.  One MVP award, nine-time All Star.  Member of the All-Decade and Top 15 teams.  Since the Projector doesn't take into account her defensive skills, she might rank above Leslie for greatest of all time in the modern era.

3.  Lauren Jackson (100 percent):  Two WNBA titles. Three time MVP winner, seven-time All Star.  Member of the All-Decade and Top 15 teams.  A post player who could shoot threes like anyone's business. She has four WNBL (Australian league) MVP awards.  Injuries, however, have hindered her and I don't think she'll play in the WNBA again.

4.  Diana Taurasi (100 percent):  Two WNBA titles.  One MVP award, seven-time WNBA All Star.  One of the most dangerous players imaginable.  She was paid a seven-figure contract by a Russian team to sit out the 2015 season.

5.  Cynthia Cooper (100 percent):  Four WNBA titles.  Two-time MVP.  Three time All-Star, four time WNBA Finals MVP.  And when she started playin in the wNBA...she was 34 years old.  If she had started playing at age 22, they'd consider her the true Greatest Of All Time.  Women's Basketball Hall of Fame member.

6.  Sheryl Swoopes (100 percent):  Four WNBA titles.  Three-time MVP.  Six time All-Star.  Was 26 when the WNBA started.  Fist women's basketball player to have a Nike shoe named after her, the "Air Swoopes".

7.  Candace Parker (100 percent):  Two time MVP.  First player on the list not to have a WNBA championship.  Second woman to dunk in a WNBA game.  Missed several games due to injury.  Still active, but taking some time off (how much time?) to recuperate for the 2015 season.

8.  Natalie Williams (100 percent):  Won an MVP award with the American Basketball League. Three seasons with the Portland Power, then played with the Utah Starzz and Indiana Fever, which weren't the greatest teams in the WNBA.  Excellent power forward.

9.  Yolanda Griffith (100 percent):  One WNBA title, one MVP, eight time All-Star.   WNBA All-Decade Team Member.  In the 1997-98 ABL season, she was MVP runner up to Natalie Williams.  Women's Basketball Hall of Fame member.

10.  Tina Thompson (100 percent):  Four WNBA titles.  Nine time All-Star.  All-time leading scorer in WNBA history.

11.  Cappie Pondexter (100 percent):  Two WNBA titles.  Six time All-Star. Top 15 All Time list. 

12.  Sue Bird (100 percent):  Can't have Diana Taurasi without Sue Bird.  Two WNBA titles.  Eight time All-Star.  WNBA All-Decade team. Top 15 All Time list.

13.  Tina Charles (100 percent):  One MVP award.  Three time All-Star  Incredible rebounder.

14.  Lindsay Whalen (100 percent):  Two WNBA titles.  Five time All-Star.

Next time:  The seven players in the 90-99th percentile, the ones that are "virtually in". One of these players is already in the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame Projector Test: Looking at HOF Players

Ever since I discovered Basketball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame Probability calculation metric, I've been very interested in building something similar for the WNBA. However, there was a collection of stats that I didn't have - the MVP award shares, which are explained here. After pilight was kind enough to give me his information, I began building the metric in earnest.

The calculations are now complete. The data might need a test for accuracy, but we can now put a Hall of Fame probability number on every player to play in the ABL and the WNBA, based solely on their pro career. In short, we can say how much their professional ABL/WNBA career supports their inclusion into the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame.

The problem is that for NBA players, Hall of Fame induction is well established - NBA players are inducted into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame when they retire. This is supposed to be an all-inclusive list including international players and female candidates. Unfortunately, female players weren't inducted into the Naismith HOF until 1992, with the induction of Lusia Harris-Stewart. The last time a woman who was a player was inducted was 2005, with the addition of Hortência Marcari. Let's just say that the Naismith HOF is overwhelmingly male and leave it at that.

Therefore, the women have their own club. The Women's Basketball Hall of Fame was established in 1999, opening in Knoxville, Tennessee. The club is open to both genders, but as the focus of the game is women's basketball an overwhelming majority of inductees are women.

Furthermore, unlike Cooperstown, both the NHOF and the WBHOF consider the totality of a player's accomplishments - college, professional and international. However, the HOF metric above only considers a player's pro status. Even with the emphasis on women, the ABL/WNBA haven't been around enough for players to be inducted solely on the strength of their pro career.

There have only been a few players on the list of inductees who have spent any time in the ABL or the WNBA (unfortunately, we have no WBL stats to look at or we could consider Anne Meyers and Carol Blazejowski, and Machine Gun Molly Bolin). I therefore looked at each WBHOF player that had any time in the two pro leagues of the late 20th century and calculated if they could have gotten into the WBHOF on their ABL/WNBA career alone. Hopefully, your implicit numbers will agree with my explicit ones.


Nancy Lieberman: (0%) She has an armada of accomplishments, but by the time the WNBA started, she was ready for retirement. If she hadn't played a minute of WNBA ball she'd be a Hall of Famer Fer Sure.

Daedra Charles: (0%) Yes, she was a great player for the University of Tennessee and was one of only five Lady Vols to have her number retired. She's there, however, strictly on the strength of her college career and the fact that the WBHOF is in Knoxville. She basically ate her way out of the WNBA; she was at her peak age of 28 in 1997 but her first WNBA season was her last.

Lynette Woodard: (0%) She's a Nancy Lieberman case: superannuated player with a massive record of accomplishments comes into the WNBA for one or two twilight seasons.

Rebecca Lobo: (0%) Lobo had a bevy of accomplishments in college, but her pro career was a different story. She had two real seasons in the W before blowing out her knee and becoming the shadow of the player she used to be. Had a ring from the first All-Star game in 1999 and a handful of MVP votes were tossed her way in 1997. You could argue that she deserves to be there for being the public face of the WNBA.

Janice Braxton: (2%) Braxton had some okay stats but not much press attention (few MVP votes) or fan love (no All-Star Games) in her pro career. Like Lieberman and Woodard, she would have probably had a much better career if she didn't have to start it at age 35. I think if there had been a WNBA in 1985, Braxton would have been fantastic.

Andrea Lloyd-Curry: (3%) Andrea Lloyd-Curry won championships at every level, but her pro championships came in the ABL and not the WNBA. Lloyd-Curry was a member of the Columbus Quest, where she won two ABL championships. She came into the WNBA in 1999 with the Lynx, where her first year was either a sign of an age-related decline or just an adjustment issue. Her 1999 Lynx season was her final one.

Suzie McConnell Serio: (4%) Her brief pro career was bracketed by a successful college career and a Coach of the Year award in 2004. I'd say that McConnell Serio's height has as much to do with her HOF status as anything else - Sports lllustrated named her the best 5-4 basketball player, male or female, at one time.

Clarissa Davis-Wrightsil: (8%) We're now entering the "outside cases" for Hall of Fame nomination, but we're not quite there yet. Her numbers were borderline in the pro game (two and a bump years in the ABL, one in the W). Was an All-Star one time, in the inaugural 1996-97 ABL season. She had just passed 28 when she was an ABL player. She's probably in the HOF for her international career, where she got four gold medals for the US in various competitions, and for being a freshman on an undefeated 1986 championship Texas team.

Michele Timms: (9%) She was an All-Star in that first WNBA 1999 All-Star game, along with Lobo. She was the first Australian woman to play professional basketball overseas. Timms played for the Mercury for four years and was the first Mercury player and second WNBA player to have her number retired. Timms was another late starter, playing her first WNBA season at 32. I'd say that "first Australian pro player" has a lot to do with Timms being in the HOF.

Teresa Weatherspoon: (17%) Weatherspoon is a strange case. She could certainly dish the ball, but she just couldn't score with it. Really, her numbers aren't that good. The problem is that if you claim at T-Spoon really wasn't all that, you open up the whole issue of statistics vs. experience - there is a whole school of thought out there that claims that the stats mean nothing compared to what you see with your own eyes and the various "intangibles" a player brings and several Liberty fans who will go to the mattresses to defend T-Spoon.

Since I never saw Weatherspoon play, all I have are statistics. I wouldn't put anyone in the HOF who averages about five points a game no matter how many dimes they throw. (If she's a great defensive player, was she really that great?) However, T-Spoon was certainly a fan favorite, getting to the WNBA All-Star game five times. Furthermore, given the late start of her pro career (age 31), her assist numbers and All-Star game numbers probably would have been higher if there had been a pro league when she graduated - but would she have been an icon if she played for the Starzz?

Katrina McClain: (30%) She's in the HOF for collecting all sorts of medals for various incarnations of the United States women's basketball team. Her Wikipedia entry has her as a 1997-1998 All-Star for the American Basketball League. She was around 32 years old, and she had a very good lone pro season - it makes you wonder what we might have seen if she hung around. She was suspended by the ABL in November 1998 for refusing to report to the Chicago Condors; one month later the league was bankrupt.

Jennifer Azzi: (40%) Azzi played in both the ABL and the WNBA. She was a two-time All-Star for the ABL, a league she helped found. Naismith winner, Wade Trophy winner, Olympic gold medalist. Once again, we only got a very small piece of a career; even so that piece was impressive.

Jennifer Gillom: (55%) The first person on the list who could legitimately get into the HOF solely on their pro career since 1997. She was a full-time starter for the Phoenix Mercury for six years, averaging 13.4 points per game. Unfortunately, her career ended in 2003; like so many others on this list she started her pro game in her 30s.

Teresa Edwards: (99%) Oh yeah, you definitely could not overlook Edwards's pro career. But put that on the back burner for a while. She earned four Olympic gold medals for playing basketball. She was the first basketball player of any gender in the US to play in five different Olympic games. On her Olympic career alone she should be a Hall of Famer.

An under-six-footer, Edwards was a two-time All Star in the ABL. Over her career in both leagues, Edwards scored about 14.5 ppg.

Cynthia Cooper: (>99%) Are we even required to discuss it?


COMING SOON: The current WNBA players who are "Hall of Famers Fer Sure".