Evaluating the WNBA Draft With Adjusted Wins Score

A long time ago, I introduced a linear metric called "Wins Score", which is one of my favorite metrics. I like it better than the WNBA's metric (Efficiency) because I believe that Efficiency overrates poor shooters.

Since then, there has been some by people involved in the statistical side of basketball whether "Wins Score" overrates rebounders. The Wins Score metric gives players one point for every rebound, regardless of whether the rebound was offensive or defensive. The argument - as well I understand it - is that in a lot of cases, rebounds will sort of come as a byproduct of just being there. Someone has to end up with the ball after a missed shot, or it just goes out of bounds.

Adjusted Wins Score (AWS) adjusts for the rebounds. It gives 0.7 points for all offensive rebounds, and 0.3 to the more numerous defensive rebounding. The resulting formula:

Adjusted Wins Score=

total points scored
+ 0.7 * offensive rebounds
+ 0.3 * defensive rebounds
+ steals
+ 0.5 * (assists + blocks)
- field goal attempts
- turnovers
-0.5 * (personal fouls + free throw attempts)

The correlation of Adjusted Wins Score to total teams wins is around 0.9 percent, if I recall correctly. The metric has a high degree of predictability "after the fact".

However, if you want to use AWS to predict the future, you have to make some tough decisions. The first is how to project future performance of a player based on past performance. The second problem is how to project initial performance for players who have never played before - draftees.

So how do you evaluate the draftees? We now have 12 years of data, which should allow us to make some kind of predictions. We can simply look at a draft position - #1, #2, #3 - and see how players have done historically in their first year of play. We could then compare a drafted player after the season to her ancestors, so to speak. We would compare Angel McCoughtry to every previous #1 draft pick between 1997 and 2008, we'd compare Marissa Coleman to every previous #2 draft pick, and so forth. Depending on how those comparisons measured up, we could then sort out which GM organizations drafted well and which didn't.

My first idea was to take the average AWS of all #1 picks, the average AWS of all #2 picks, etc. The problem is that very high values or very low ones would skew the average. If we go by the rule of mathematical average, you'd have to conclude that the Los Angeles Sparks organization were geniuses in drafting Candace Parker. They shouldn't be given huge amounts of credit for that - Candace Parker was clearly someone who would be a great player in the WNBA right away. We can at the very least give the Sparks organization credit in not passing up Parker, so they should at least get credit for doing something right.

Instead of using an average AWS, I would use the median AWS. The median of a set of numbers is just the dividing line between the top half of the values and the bottom half. If the set has an odd number of values, the median is the one that's smack in the middle; if the set has an even number of values the median is the average of the "highest low" and the "lowest high".

In those cases where a draft pick didn't play in the year when she was drafted, or never made it to the WNBA at all, I assigned a value of 0.0 for that given draft position and year. It seems fair, since AWS is an additive metric and the missing player had neither added nor subtracted from the team's total AWS.

For the top 39 positions in the AWS, here is the median AWS:



What do these numbers tell us?

First, let's look at how the players in 2008 stacked up in AWS. My grading scale:

50.0 AWS and above: A
10.0 - 49.9 AWS: B
0.0 - 9.9 AWS: C
-9.9 to -0.1 AWS: D
-10.0 AWS and below: F

Second, let's compare the sample median scores to some actual players: according to the table, the median AWS for a #1 draft pick is 38.4. Historically, they have proven to be "B" players in their first year of play. In 2008, Shameka Christon of the Liberty had a AWS of 38.1. We would expect Angel McCoughtry to be about as good in 2009 as Shameka Christon was in 2008 - probably a B or B+ player, not expected to be a superstar immediately. If Angel McCoughtry is at least this good, we give the Atlanta Dream organization kudos. If she proves to be sub-par, we knock the organization.

Third, there is some unevenness in the results. #6 picks have proven to be historically better than #5 picks - possibly because they don't have to bear the expectations that come with being a Top Five draft pick. #11 is also a good position for some reason. #7 has not been good, with most of the players drafted at #7 having a poor AWS in their first year. (And this year's #7 pick? Courtney Paris.)

Fourth, you can see that once you get to around to the #8 pick, the value of the drafted player in the first year is almost negligible. One you get past the mid second round, any player that puts up even average numbers should be considered an example of smart drafting. It might be the case that GMs make their reputations in the second and third rounds of the draft and not in the first rounds, where the good choices are fairly obvious.

It will be interesting to see how well this years draft picks turn out. I'll be watching, and calculating.

Review: the 1997 WNBA Elite Draft

Remember this fine lady?

The Elite Draftees were a second class of draftees. One step below the allocated players, the distinction of this group was that it wouldn't be required to attend any combines or tryouts.

Liberty: 4th pick

Kym Hampton (7.5), Vickie Johnson (17)

Hampton graduated from Arizona State in 1984 and was already in her mid-thirties when she was drafted. She was a great field goal shooter, which made up for her 69 percent free throw shooting. In 2000, when she stepped into training camp, she noticed swelling in a knee, swelling which ended her basketball career.

Vickie Johnson, the second round pick, would stay with the Liberty for nine years. She went to San Antonio in 2006 and is currently playing for the Silver Stars. She would become the first Liberty player ever to reach 2,000 points and at the end of 2007, she was first all-time in Games Played. Picking up Johnson in the second round was a wonderful pick by the Liberty.

Comets: 5th pick

Wanda Guyton (0), Janeth Arcain (23)

Guyton graduated from the Univesity of South Florida in 1989. After some pro experience overseas in Italy and Germany, Wanda Guyton had a great first year with Houston, both in rebounds and rebound percentage. Unfortunately, back spasms were a problem for Guyton in 1998 and she only played one game for Houston that year, then finished her WNBA career in Detroit in 1999. She is probably best remembered for landing on her head fighting for a rebound during a playoff game in 1997 against the Charlotte Sting and being carried off on a stretcher.

A New York Times article implied that players like Hampton and Guyton hoped that the WNBA would pay well enough to keep them from having to play in Europe. Waived by the Shock in 2000, Guyton went back overseas and played her final six years in Germany, supposedly playing her last game in November 2007. (But her name is still on the roster!)

As for Janeth Arcain, the Brazilian played eight years for Houston, although she did not play in 2004 in order to prepare for the Olympics. A great shooter and ball-handler, Arcain was another integral part of that four-year Comets dynasty, but she was overshadowed by the presence of so many other great players. She would play overseas in Spain after she finished her WNBA career in 2005, and played her final game in the summer of 2007, on the Brazil squad at the Pan-American Games.

Sting: 3rd pick

Rhonda Mapp (8), Michi Atkins (--)

Rhonda Mapp graduated from Maryland in 1992. She would play four years for the Sting, from 1997 to 2000 and shoot 47.9 percent from the field as a center during her career. At the end of 2000, she was traded to the Los Angeles Sparks but never made her way into the starting rotation.

Then it began to fall apart. Mapp missed the 2002 season for "personal reasons", then was booted from the league near the end of the 2003 season for violating the anti-drug program, and would not be allowed to reapply for two years. She played for an Israeli team in 2003-04. What happened after that is unclear, but as of 2007, Mapp owned two women's wear stores and was opening a third in Charlotte.

Michi Atkins graduated from Texas Tech in 1996. She played briefly for the Israel League, and her WNBA career was over before it started, as she was waived by the Sting in 1997 without playing a game. She now works for TD Ameritrade in Texas.

Rockers: 2nd pick

Isabelle Fijalkowski (7.5), Lynette Woodard (-1.5)

Isabelle Fijalkowski played only two years for Cleveland -- but they were very good years. Fijalkowski had a field goal percentage over 50 percent. Then a contractual dispute sent the French center right back to Eurpoe, where she played until 2002.

Lynette Woodard had a lot of great accomplishments. She graduated in 1981 as the major scorer in women's college basketball. She helped the US win a gold medal in Los Angeles in 1984. She was the first woman Harlem Globetrotter. But by the time she got to the WNBA, she was 37. She played one year for Cleveland, one year for Detroit, and then retired.

Sparks: 8th pick

Daedra Charles (-0.5), Zheng Haixia (2.5)

Daedra Charles graduated in 1991 from Tennessee, played for the Olympic Team in 1992, and was a member of three US national teams. After playing overseas, she'd play for the Sparks in their inaugural year, but it was the only year she played. She would be waived by the Sparks the next year.

Afterwards, she would coach at high school, in Detroit and Auburn before being signed this year to coach at her alma mater, Tennessee. Charles is a member of the Women's Basketball Hall of Fame.

At the time she was signed, Zheng Haixia was the tallest player in the WNBA at 6'8" tall. (Margo Dydek would later exceed her in height; Haixia is tied for second.) She started in 1983 as the youngest player on her team and participated at the Olympic level. She might be arguably the best woman's player China ever produced. She is currently a coach in the Chinese Women's Basketball Association (WCBA).

Monarchs: 6th pick

Judy Mosley-McAfee (-1.5), Mikiko Hagiwara (-1)

Mosley-McAfee would only play one season for the Monarchs, and then go to Europe to play for a team in Hungary. Her only distinction in the WNBA would be that she was the first player from the University of Hawai'i to play in the WNBA, having graduated in 1990. She sort of disappeared after that.

As for Mikiko Hagiwara, her only distinction was that she would be the first player in WNBA history to be traded, in mid-1997 to Phoenix. She would conclude her career in Phoenix in 1998, where she would only play in 10 games. She has been a coach in Japan since 2001 and has coached the Japanese Women's National Team.

Starzz: 1st pick

Dena Head (-5.5), Wendy Palmer (-1)

A graduate of Tennessee in 1992, she would play in Europe before heading to the WNBA. She would play two years for the Starzz in 1997-98 and one year for the Mercury in 2000 before retiring. She was a great free throw shooter, but didn't provide much offense, with her best year 1997 where she averaged 5.7 points per game. After her WNBA career, Head would serve as an assistant coach at Central Connecticut State University until 2007.

Wendy Palmer graduated from Virginia in 1996 and would go right to the WNBA the next year. She averaged around 17 points a game while with the Starzz, and was traded to Detroit in the 1999 season. Palmer was a top ten career rebounder whose last active year was with the Seattle Storm in 2007. She was not re-signed in 2008 after the achilles tendon injury she suffered the year before deceased her production.

Mercury: 7th pick

Bridget Pettis (-5.5), Nancy Lieberman-Cline (-2.5)

Pettis graduated from Florida in 1993. Bridet Pettis had two good years with the Mercury, but she wasn't the best field goal shooter and starting with 1999 her minutes and production began to wane with each successive year. She ended her WNBA career with Indiana in 2003. Pettis continued to play overseas and tried a comeback with Phoenix in 2006. She would be hired as an assistant coach for the Mercury in 2007.

Nancy Lieberman-Cline went to Old Dominion, but did not graduate. She might be the only WNBA player who also played in the Women's Pro Basketball League, which existed from 1978 to 1981. By the time she got to Phoenix, she was already 39 and her best years were behind her. A member of the Basketball Hall of Fame, Lieberman-Cline would go on to coach the Detroit Shock and is currently a basketball commentator.

Review: the 1997 WNBA Initial Allocation Draft

Sheryl Swoopes, one of the sole survivors of the 1997 Initial Allocation Draft.

The biggest question facing the WNBA was probably how the new teams would be put together. One thing that the WNBA didn't want was a massive free-for-all where any team could sign any player for any amount of money. Furthermore, the owners were NBA owners who were undoubtedly looking towards their own labor history with their male players. Salaries would be capped in the WNBA.

At the beginning, the WNBA was not alone. There was already a professional women's basketball league -- the American Basketball League (ABL). The ABL had signed most of the stars from the 1996 US Olympics Women's "Dream Team" leaving the WNBA with fewer quality players to go around among its eight teams.

Therefore, the WNBA decided on a three-pronged draft in 1997. The first part of the draft would be an allocation draft. Sixteen star players representing both recent college graduates and established players would be allocated to the eight teams. I've never learned whether this allocation was purely random, or whether it was motivated by other factors. I think people were so happy to have a league that was assisted by the NBA that they never thought to ask.

The second part of the draft was an "elite draft". Elite players, usually those who played overseas, would be subjected to something like a traditional draft. It would be very much like a traditional draft, with players choosing from a common pool.

The third part of the draft would be like the other drafts that would follow it -- the player pool would be a pool of recent college graduates. However, the draft would follow a "reverse snake" pattern, where the order of draft would be reversed in subsequent rounds -- the eighth team picking in one round would be the first picking in the following round.

How do you evaluate a player's contribution?

I'm using a stat obtained at basketball-reference.com called "Win Shares Above Average". The idea is that a player earns "win shares" for her team, with one win share being a third of a win. The formula -- a complex one -- is listed at the site. The goal of the formula is to put defensive players and offensive players on the same page.

However, a player can do things wrong. These wrong things are converted into "loss shares". This makes up for showy offensive players who do so many things wrong (turnovers, personal fouls) that their offensive value is limited.

Win Shares Above Average is simply (win shares - loss shares)/2. Having a positive WSAA means that your overall contribution to your team was positive. Having zero means that you contributed no more than the hypothetical average player, and having negative WSAA means that you were a detriment to your team.

Furthermore, players are evaluated only for the period that they were on the teams that drafted them. It doesn't matter if you draft Lisa Leslie if you let her go two days later.

1997 Initial Allocation Draft

Comets: Sheryl Swoopes (54), Cynthia Cooper (35.5)

The heart of Houston's four straight championships came right here. Swoopes was a member of the 1996 "Dream Team", having graduated from Texas Tech in 1993. She was a three-time MVP, three-time Defensive Player of the Year. Oddly enough of the sixteen, she didn't provide the most in WSAA but she has probably added more value to her team than just about anyone. At 37, Swoopes is still playing, now for the Seattle Storm. She is third in lifetime WSAA.

Cynthia Cooper is seventh on the WSAA all-time list, despite playing only five years in the WNBA. She graduated from USC in 1986. She was the Finals MVP during all four of the championships of the Houston Comets. I think it's safe to say that if you give me Swoopes and Cooper at the height of their skills, I can build a championship team around that. Having Tina Thompson only made Houston more dangerous.

Sparks: Lisa Leslie (64), Penny Toler (-7.5)

The WSAA active list (complete to 2007) has Lisa Leslie in second place. If she knows when to retire -- that is, if she quits playing when her loss shares begin to exceed her win shares -- she might surpass Yolanda Griffith at the #1 spot. Leslie has two MVPs and two finals MVPs over her own. Leslie graduated from USC in 1994 and was a member of the 1996 "Dream Team".

However, by the time Penny Toler came along, she had already played in the pros overseas for eight years. She graduated from Long Beach State in 1989. Toler would score the WNBA's first basket, but that was one of the few highlights of her WNBA career. She would move from player to general manager, and she would help put together a Sparks team that would win the WNBA championship in 2001 and 2002. As a player, she couldn't contribute much but her skill as a manager more than made up for it.

Sting: Andrea Stinson (15.5), Vicky Bullett (15)

Poor Andrea Stinson. She got her jersey number retired in Charlotte, and then the team folded at the end of the year. This 5-10 guard out of North Carolina State, a 1991 graduate, led the Sting to six playoff appearances, including a WNBA Finals in 2001.

As for Vicky Bullett, she would only play three seasons in Charlotte. She was a graduate of Maryland in 1989 and helped the US win a gold medal in 1988. Before playing for the WNBA, she played in the Italian leagues. In all three seasons that Bullet played for the Sting, they went to the playoffs. She would retire from the WNBA in 2002, continue playing overseas, and finally end her pro career in 2007.

Liberty: Teresa Weatherspoon (10), Rebecca Lobo (2.5)

Weatherspoon was a fantastic ball-handler and two-time Defensive Player of the Year. She graduated from Louisiana Tech in 1988. From 1997 to 2003, she would have an amazing streak of starting in every WNBA game. In 2003 she was released from the New York Liberty, and Weatherspoon was bitter about it -- but it was time for her to go. She played one more year with the Sparks, and then retired.

As for Rebecca Lobo, she was the face that the WNBA wanted to put on billboards and on commercials. She was a popular college player, graduating from Connecticut in 1995. Despite being named to the All-WNBA Team in 1997, she only had one good year, that in 1998. In the very first game in 1999, she suffered an anterior cruciate ligament tear in her left knee and never recovered. Out for the rest of 1999 and all of 2000, she was traded to the Comets in 2002. She would finish her career in 2003 with the Connecticut Sun.

Monarchs: Ruthie Bolton (9), Bridgette Gordon (-3)

Ruthie Bolton was an efficient three point shooter, and she took one of the fundamentals of basketball at heart, namely hang on to the ball. She's second all time in smallest turnover percentage, second only to Lauren Jackson of the Storm as of the end of 2007. Bolton graduated from Auburn in 1990 and was a member of the 1996 Olympic "Dream Team". However, with no pro outlet in the United States, she had to go to Italy to play before the WNBA was founded. She would spend her entire WNBA career as a Monarch, retiring at the end of the 2004 season.

Bridgette Gordon was a larger-than-life player, loud clothes, loud jewelry, loud personality. She graduated from Tennessee in 1989, and would end up playing eight years in Italy before coming to the WNBA. She would be a major part of the Monarchs roster in 1997, but start only five games in 1998 and was waived by the Monarchs in 1999.

Mercury: Jennifer Gillom (9.5), Michele Timms (-4.0)

Gillom graduated from Mississippi in 1986 and had played for several European teams before coming to the WNBA in its inaugural year. She would only play six years for the Mercury (and one for the Sparks), but would average 13.4 points a game. Her best years were probably behind her as she was already 33 when the league started.

As for Michele Timms, the Australian was 32 when she was drafted. She averaged 12.1 points a game in 1997, and never broke the 10 PPG barrier for the rest of her career, due to her usually poor field goal shooting. (She shot 31 percent from the field in 1998.) She only lasted five years in the WNBA. However, she would lead the Phoenix Mercury in career assists and the Mercury would end up retiring her number.

Rockers: Janice Braxton (10), Michelle Edwards (-9.5)

Braxton only made it three years in Cleveland. She had graduated Louisiana Tech in 1984, so she was 34 when the WNBA 1997 season started and already sort of had one foot out the door, but put up good numbers all three of her years.

Michelle Edwards graduated from Iowa in 1989. She would only play four seasons with the Rockers before being traded in the middle of the 2000 season to the Seattle Storm. Why is Edwards ranked so low? Because she was death at the free throw line. She shot only 61.3 percent from the charity stripe during her career. Furthermore, her field goal percentage declined every year she was in the league.

Starzz: Elena Baranova (1), Lady Hardmon (-6)

Baranova could block shots and she could rebound. Being the greatest Russian women's basketball player of the 20th century didn't hurt, either. The problem for the Starzz was that Baranova's best years came after her tenure in Utah.

After three years in Utah, she was traded in 2000 to the Miami Sol for Kate Starbird and a second round draft pick. She would pick up 6 WSAA in Miami in 2001 after sitting out all of 2000 with an ACL tear. In 2002, she decided to sit out the entire season to train with the Russian national team. The Sun would fold, Baranova would be picked up by the Liberty in the dispersal draft, and she would earn 9.5 WSAA for the Liberty over three years. The problem with Utah is that they got the stub end of Baranova's WNBA years. Her last WNBA year was 2005…but Baranova is still playing in Europe.

As for Lady Hardmon (also known as Lady Grooms), she only played one year in Utah where she scored only 5.5 points per game. Grooms graduated from Georgia in 1992. Back when she was still known as Lady Hardmon, she shot horribly from the field and had a lot of turnovers that first year in Utah. Utah traded her to Sacramento for Chantel Tremitiere and Grooms she settled down in Sacramento to became a near-average player. She would spend the rest of her career in Sacramento, her last year being 2004.