Dream Pick up Mokango, Ardossi and Raven in 2010 WNBA Draft

Mokango's moment in the sun.

The 2010 WNBA Draft is in the history books, and the newest prospective members of the Dream have been chosen. Let's introduce them.

First Round, 9th Pick: Chanel Mokango, Mississippi State.

“Chanel had a terrific year and her upside is just out of sight,” said Dream General Manager and Head Coach Marynell Meadors. “She has only been playing basketball since she was 15. She is a shot blocker, a terrific defender and she runs the floor extremely well. She’s just going to continue to get better.”

Mokango, a native of Kinshasa, Congo, played two years for Mississippi State after beginning her collegiate career at Southeastern Illinois College. As a senior, Mokango led the Lady Bulldogs to a 21-13 record and the program’s first Sweet Sixteen appearance in the NCAA tournament. She averaged 10.8 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in the 2009-10 season. The two-time Southeastern Conference All-Defensive Team selection also set the Mississippi State record with 180 career blocked shots.

Only playing basketball since she was 15? Maybe Meadors thinks she's getting another Sancho Lyttle, who is also a play who picked up basketball later in life than most girls. Makongo scored a pitiful 84th on the Senior Prospects Metric - as a junior, she only had 190 rebounds and the SPM wasn't happy with her rebounding as a 6'5" forward. But as a senior, she picked up an extra thirty rebounds. She is an incredible shot blocker. She blocked 2.5 shots per game in her senior season...and 2.9 in her junior year. She finished 88th among all players from BCS teams in boxscore values.

It's going to be interesting to see if Chanel Mokango develops the way that Marynell Meadors thinks she will. It will certainly be interesting to watch her blossom, and hopefully she won't fade from the challenge of the WNBA.

Second round, 21st pick: Brigitte Ardossi, Georgia Tech.



The Dream selected Ardossi in the second round with the No. 21 overall pick. Ardossi, a 6-2 forward, was a four-year starter and appeared in all 130 games in her Georgia Tech career. The Melbourne, Australia native led the Yellow Jackets in points and rebounds during the 2009-10 season, posting career-high averages of 15.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. An Atlantic Coast Conference second team selection, Ardossi scored in double figures 29 times this season. She was part of a senior class that finished with four straight 20-win seasons and NCAA Tournament bids. Ardossi was named the Georgia Women’s Basketball Player of the Year by the Atlanta Tipoff Club.

“Brigitte has so much fire and passion for playing the game and that’s what the Atlanta Dream is about,” said Meadors. “She’s a really talented player and her versatility is a huge asset.”

I followed Brigitte Ardossi's career at Georgia Tech all year. Generally, everyone expected Alex Montgomery to carry the team this year, but when she couldn't, Brigitte Ardossi stepped up to the challenge. I didn't even have her listed on the Senior Prospects Metric.

However, in terms of Boxscore Values, Ardossi is 14th out of all BCS players, all classes concluded. She's seventh out of all seniors with 6.22 out of Georgia Tech's 23 wins. Georgia Tech's performances on the big stage - the post-season - have been somewhat lacking. The team made it to the semifinals of the ACC tournament and lost in the opening round of the tournament this year, upset by Arkansas-Little Rock.

Ardossi might be a steal. We remember the last player that Marynell Meadors got with a second round pick - Shalee Lehning. No one thought that Lehning would even start. Could Ardossi make it into the rotation? We'll find out.

Third round, 33rd pick: Brittainey Raven, Texas.



In the third round, the Dream added Raven with the No. 33 pick. Raven, a 6-0 guard from the University of Texas, was a three-time All-Big 12 second team honoree. Raven led the Longhorns in scoring, averaging 14.6 points as a senior. She also contributed 4.9 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game.

I didn't even have Raven listed on the SPM and in terms of Boxscore Values, Raven is 114th. Oddly enough, Raven is a shooting guard and not a point guard. I guess the message is that it's going to be either Lehning or Kelly Miller at the point.

In any event, welcome to the Dream! Hope to see you at training camp on April 25th!

AJC Article About the Dream and the Draft

Before tomorrow's draft, Pierce W. Huff of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution got a chance to speak with Atlanta Dream coach Marynell Meadors about the needs of the Dream:

"It’s going to be a question of whether a player can make our team,” Dream general manager/coach Marynell Meadors said. “I hate to say it, but it’s going to be tough.”

...

“I think the No. 1 position for us in the draft still is to try to find a post player, and then a guard or a player at small forward,” Meadors said.

My guesses: Jacinta Monroe of Florida State, Brigitte Ardossi of Georgia Tech or Kelsey Griffin of Nebraska.

Who in the World is Stephany Neptune?

Wearing Powder Blue in the future?

It almost sounds like the name of a fictional secret agent than a basketball player. According to thesouthern.com, the Atlanta Dream have gotten in touch with Neptune:

The news appears to be much better for recently graduated standout Stephany Neptune. Neptune, who won the MVC's Newcomer of the Year award in averaging 11.6 points and 10.9 rebounds a game in her only SIU season, has drawn interest from the Atlanta Dream of the WNBA.

Tiber said that the Dream has called twice about Neptune - who is in the process of hiring an agent - and is interested in the 5-foot-8 guard's versatility in being able to play the 1 through 4 positions.

According to her bio at Southern Illinois University, over three years at Tusculum College she averaged 11.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg as a freshman and 10.9 ppg and 11.3 ppg as a sophomore. Not bad for a 5-9 guard! Over her career at Tusculum she recorded 36 career double-doubles. Tusculum College is a Division II school in Tennessee and Neptune was a Division II All-American.

She honed her game on the streets of New York City. According to the southern.com, it's a story often told - girl growing up in a single-parent household plays ball on the streets of New York, and blossoms.

I don't know if the Dream will draft her, but it's definitely a compelling story even if we don't choose her.

2010 WNBA Draft: Who is Eligible?

The following comes from the WNBA 2008 Collective Bargaining Agreement. For further information, consult your local lawyer.

PLAYER ELIGIBILITY AND WNBA DRAFT

Section 1. Player Eligibility

(a) Only players who are women are eligible to play in the WNBA.
(b) A player is eligible to be selected in the WNBA Draft if she:

-(i) will be at least twenty-two (22) years old during the calendar year in which such Draft is held and she either has no remaining intercollegiate eligibility or renounces her remaining intercollegiate eligibility by written notice to the WNBA at least ten (10) days prior to such Draft;
-(ii) has graduated from a four-year college or university prior to such Draft, or "is to graduate" from such college or university within the three (3)-month period following such Draft and she either has no remaining intercollegiate eligibility or renounces her remaining intercollegiate eligibility by written notice to the WNBA at least ten (10) days prior to such Draft, or
-(iii) attended a four-year college or university, her original class in such college or university "is to graduate" within the three (3)-month period following such Draft and she either has no remaining intercollegiate eligibility or renounces her remaining intercollegiate eligibility by written notice to the WNBA at least ten (10) days prior to such Draft.

(For purposes of subsection (b)(ii) above, "is to graduate" shall mean that such player would graduate from the college or university she is currently enrolled in if she were to successfully complete the coursework she is enrolled in at the time of such Draft and such course load is commensurate with the previous course loads she has successfully completed. )

(For purposes of subsection (b)(iii) above, "is to graduate" shall mean that the majority of students in such class would graduate from the college or university upon successful completion of the coursework she is enrolled the members of such class are enrolled in at the time of the draft.)

(c) A player who:

-(i) is competing in a NCAA season (including any NCAA Tournament) during the period that begins ten (10) days prior to a Draft;
-(ii) has remaining intercollegiate eligibility beyond the season in which she is currently competing, and
-(iii) is otherwise eligible for selection in such Draft, may make herself eligible for such Draft by renouncing her remaining intercollegiate eligibility within the period beginning at the conclusion of her final NCAA game in the season in which she is currently competing and ending twenty-four hours thereafter (but in no event later than (3) hours prior to the Draft.)

(d) Notwithstandin section 1(b) above, an international player is eligible to be selected in the WNBA Draft if she will be at least 20 years old during the calendar year in which such Draft is held.

(e) For purposes of this Section 1, an "international player" means any person born and residing outside the United States who participates in the game of basketball as an amateur or a professional. An international player who exercises intercollegiate basketball eligibility in the United States shall be subject to the eligibility rules set forth in Section 1 (b)(iii) above.

(f) No player may sign a Contract or play in the WNBA unless she has been eligible for selection in at least one (1) WNBA Draft.

(g) No player shall be eligible for selection in more than two (2) WNBA Drafts.

Date Set for 2010 WNBA Draft

The 2010 WNBA Draft date has been set for Thursday April 8, 2010. It will be held the same location as last year, at the NBA Entertainment Studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. It will start at 3 pm ET on ESPN2 and ESPN360. NBA TV and ESPNU will televise the second and third rounds.

The Connecticut Sun pick first, and everyone expects Tina Charles to be picked as the #1 pick. But who will go #2? Jayne Appel? Or someone else? Find out in April.

Connecticut and Minnesota Swap Draft Picks, Trade Montgomery and Whalen

The big news in the WNBA is that Connecticut and Minnesota have traded first-round draft picks. Previously, Minnesota had the #1 Draft Pick and Connecticut had the #2 overall pick.

Trade:
to Connecticut: Minnesota's first round draft pick (#1 overall) and Renee Montgomery (PG)
to Minnesota: Connecticut's first round draft pick (#2 overall) and Lindsay Whalen (PG)

What does Connecticut get? First, it gets the #1 Draft Pick, which gives the Sun the chance to pick up senior center Tina Charles out of the University of Connecticut. Since Montgomery is also a UConn player, it looks like the Sun is stocking up on local players to help draw a crowd at Mohegan Sun Arena.

However, Tina Charles is no slouch. She'd probably edge out Jayne Appel of Stanford as the majority #1 consensus draft pick. She was #10 in the Boxscores Values for 2008-09, and most of the players above her were seniors and WNBA draft picks in 2009. Furthermore, 11 of the previous 13 WNBA #1 picks have been stars.

My prediction? Charles will be a great player, but you don't need a metric to see that.

Now what about Renee Montgomery? The player most statistically similar to Montgomery after her first year of play is Stacey Dales. The point guard most similiar to Montgomery after her first year of play is Matee Ajavon. Dales was at least an average player in the years before her first retirement; Ajavon has been less impressive.

Montgomery's rookie year vs. Dales's rookie year.
Montgomery's rookie year vs. Ajavon's rookie year.

Whalen, on the other hand, has been really good. I have Whalen as #25 in WNBA history in player efficiency rating (PER) among starters. She's a two-time All Star and is mentioned with Becky Hammon and Sue Bird among the premier point guards in the WNBA. Furthermore, Whalen will be 28 next year, and if 28 isn't a peak age, it's close to it.

So the question becomes "how good is that second pick in the 2009 WNBA Draft going to be?" If it's good, then you'd have to give Minnesota the win in this trade. However, this year's draft is generally acknowledged as a weak one and only five of the thirteen overall #2 picks can be considered to be stars - Griffith, Cash, Beard, Pondexter and Fowles. Given that, I think that the balance tilts in Connecticut's favor.

Of course, I could be wrong. And being wrong is the fun part.

Update: 2010 WNBA Draft Order

Regarding this news story, here is the new 2010 WNBA Draft order:

FIRST ROUND

1. Connecticut (*)
2. Minnesota (**)
3. Minnesota
4. Chicago
5. San Antonio
6. Washington
7. Tulsa
8. Los Angeles
9. Atlanta
10. Seattle
11. Indiana
12. Los Angeles (***)

SECOND ROUND

13. New York
14. Washington (****)
15. Connecticut
16. Chicago
17. San Antonio
18. Washington
19. Tulsa
20. Los Angeles
21. Atlanta
22. Seattle
23. Indiana
24. Phoenix

THIRD ROUND

25. New York
26. Minnesota
27. Connecticut
28. Chicago
29. San Antonio
30. Washington
31. Tulsa
32. Los Angeles
33. Atlanta
34. Seattle
35. Indiana
36. Phoenix

The Sacramento Monarchs folded and their picks are removed from the list.

(*) - Minnesota obtained Rafaella Masciardi and one of Los Angeles's two first round picks in exchange for Noelle Quinn. Los Angeles had obtained New York's first round draft pick - which turned out to be a lottery pick due to New York finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference - in exchange for Sidney Spencer. Minnesota then traded their first round pick and Renee Montgomery to Connecticut in exchange for Lindsay Whalen and Connecticut's first round draft pick.

(**) Minnesota obtained Connecticut's first round pick by trading their first round draft pick and Renee Montgomery in exchange for Linsday Whalen and Connecticut's first round draft pick.

(***) - Los Angeles obtained Phoenix's first round draft pick in exchange for Temeka Johnson.

(****) - Washington obtained from Minnesota Lindsey Harding, the Lynx's #23 pick in the 2009 draft and Minnesota's second round pick in the 2010 draft for Washington's #9 and #15 picks in the 2009 Draft.

New Y--uh, Minnesota Wins #1 Pick in 2010 WNBA Draft

The WNBA Draft lottery for 2010 was held today and the Minnesota Lynx have won the #1 draft pick...however, in a strange turn of events, it wasn't Minnesota's #1 pick, but New York's.

Both Minnesota and New York had finished among the bottom five teams in the WNBA and each team was eligible for a #1 Draft Pick. However, neither of those teams had the worst record - that belonged to the Sacramento Monarchs, who should have had the best statistical chance of obtaining that pick. However, New York's first round pick had fallen into Minnesota's hands via the Los Angeles Sparks.

Last year, New York traded their first round draft pick in 2010 to Los Angeles for Sidney Spencer. The Liberty Front Office hoped that Sidney Spencer would be all that was needed to insure a playoff spot for the Liberty. Instead, the Liberty tumbled to last place in the Eastern Conference and the second-worst record in the WNBA, greatly increasing the value of New York's position in the first round - which now belonged to Minnesota. Even though Sacramento had the worst record, Minnesota actually had the greater probability of getting the #1 pick - and they did, through the pick that formerly belonged to New York.

Confusing? Well, don't worry. Below is the 2010 WNBA Draft Order.

FIRST ROUND

1. Minnesota (*)
2. Sacramento
3. Connecticut
4. Minnesota
5. Chicago
6. San Antonio
7. Washington
8. Tulsa
9. Los Angeles
10. Atlanta
11. Seattle
12. Indiana
13. Los Angeles (**)

SECOND ROUND

14. Sacramento
15. New York
16. Washington (***)
17. Connecticut
18. Chicago
19. San Antonio
20. Washington
21. Tulsa
22. Los Angeles
23. Atlanta
24. Seattle
25. Indiana
26. Phoenix

THIRD ROUND

27. Sacramento
28. New York
29. Minnesota
30. Connecticut
31. Chicago
32. San Antonio
33. Washington
34. Tulsa
35. Los Angeles
36. Atlanta
37. Seattle
38. Indiana
39. Phoenix

(*) - Minnesota obtained Rafaella Masciardi and one of Los Angeles's two first round picks in exchange for Noelle Quinn. Los Angeles had obtained New York's first round draft pick - which turned out to be a lottery pick due to New York finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference - in exchange for Sidney Spencer.

(**) - Los Angeles obtained Phoenix's first round draft pick in exchange for Temeka Johnson.

(***) - Washington obtained from Minnesota Lindsey Harding, the Lynx's #23 pick in the 2009 draft and Minnesota's second round pick in the 2010 draft for Washington's #9 and #15 picks in the 2009 Draft.

WNBA Draft Lottery to be Announced November 5th

We'll know a bit more about who picks where when the WNBA completes its draft lottery on November 5th. I'll post the complete order after the drawing. What makes the draft interesting is that Minnesota inherited New York's first round pick this year, giving the Lynx the outside chance to pick at #1 and #2 in 2010.

Thinking of the 2010 WNBA Draft

With the 2010 WNBA Draft, the Atlanta Dream will draft at the #10, the #23 and the #36 positions. This comes from the regular season record, which was ranked as fourth best in a heavy-parity league this year. The question then becomes if the Dream can find anyone good at the 10-spot.

I read something interesting at 82games.com which provides a sort of "blunt force" metric to evaluate draft choices. The highly simplistic metric goes:

rating = points/game + assists/game + rebounds/game

From there, players fall into several categories depending on their ratings:

Star: 16 or more
Solid: 12.5 to 16
Role player: 8 to 12.5
Deep bench: 4 to 8
Bust: 0 to 4
DNP: "did not play"

(The numbers above are adjusted to the shorter WNBA game.)

I then applied the metric to the various draft picks. The first column states how many picks at that rank have existed. For example, the WNBA has been around for 13 years and there have been 13 #1 picks.

					Role	Deep
Pick Total	Pick		Star	Solid	Player	Bench	Bust	DNP
13	1		11	2	0	0	0	0
13	2		5	4	1	3	0	0
13	3		6	1	4	1	1	0
13	4		5	5	2	1	0	0
13	5		3	4	4	2	0	0
13	6		4	3	4	1	1	0
13	7		1	1	5	5	1	0
13	8		0	3	5	4	1	0
13	9		0	2	5	6	0	0
13	10		2	2	4	4	0	1
13	11		3	1	5	3	1	0
13	12		1	0	4	5	1	1
13	13		0	3	2	3	3	2
13	14		0	2	5	4	2	0
13	15		0	0	3	4	5	1
13	16		1	1	0	4	5	2
13	17		0	1	3	3	4	2
13	18		1	0	1	6	5	0
13	19		0	0	2	5	2	4
13	20		1	0	0	5	4	3
13	21		0	0	3	3	4	3
13	22		0	1	2	5	2	3
13	23		0	0	2	4	3	4
13	24		0	0	2	6	2	3
13	25		0	0	4	4	2	3
13	26		0	0	2	6	3	2
13	27		1	1	1	5	1	4
13	28		1	0	3	1	2	6
13	29		0	1	1	2	6	3
13	30		1	1	0	4	3	4
13	31		0	1	1	4	3	4
13	32		1	0	0	4	3	5
12	33		0	0	2	0	1	9
12	34		0	1	2	2	1	6
12	35		1	0	0	2	3	6
12	36		0	0	1	0	2	9
12	37		0	0	0	0	5	7
12	38		0	0	0	2	0	10
11	39		0	0	0	3	0	8
8	40		0	0	1	3	0	4
7	41		0	1	0	0	1	5
7	42		0	0	0	1	3	3
5	43		0	0	1	1	1	2
4	44		0	0	0	0	1	3
4	45		0	0	0	1	1	2
4	46		0	0	0	0	3	1
4	47		0	0	0	0	1	3
4	48		0	0	0	1	0	3
4	49		0	0	0	1	0	3
4	50		0	0	1	0	1	2
3	51		0	0	1	0	0	2
3	52		0	0	0	0	1	2
3	53		0	0	0	1	1	1
3	54		0	0	0	1	0	2
3	55		0	0	0	0	0	3
3	56		0	0	0	0	2	1
3	57		0	0	0	1	0	2
3	58		0	0	0	0	1	2
3	59		0	0	0	0	0	3
3	60		0	0	0	0	0	3
3	61		0	0	0	0	0	3
3	62		0	0	0	0	0	3
3	63		0	0	0	1	0	2
3	64		0	0	0	0	0	3

Some thoughts about the above:

* The bust at the #3 spot was Sandora Irvin.
* The bust at the #6 spot was Cindy Blodgett.
* The bust at the #7 spot was Shona Thorburn.
* The bust at the #8 spot was Sun Min-Jung.
* At #10, Molly Creamer is the highest draft pick never to play in the WNBA. Not surprisingly, she was drafted by the New York Liberty in 2003.
* The bust at #11 is Danielle Crockrum.
* At #12, Alison Curtin never played for Houston. She was drafted in 2003. No telling whether or not Ashley Walker is a bust yet or not.
* At #16, Nicky Anosike is the outlier - the good player among the bad.
* At #18, Tammy Sutton-Brown is the outlier.
* At #20, Sheri Sam is the outlier.
* At #27, the star is Adrienne Goodson and the solid player is Cathrine Kraayeveld.
* At #28, the star is Brandy Reed.
* At #29, the solid player is Dominique Canty.
* At #30, the star is Charde Houston, the solid player is Tamika Whitmore.
* At #32, the star is Taj McWilliams.
* At #34, the solid player is Sandy Brondello.
* At #35, the star is Jia Perkins.

The modern draft ends at the #39 position. Let's look at each of the draft spots.

The #10 Pick: It is actually quite possible to get good players at #10. Two stars (Katie Douglas, Michelle Snow) and two solid players (Rebekkah Brunson, Loree Moore) have come out of this spot. It's unlikely that a bust player will come out of the #10 spot, but this is the level in the draft where there's the fractional chance that one's draft pick might not play a single game. (The aforementioned Molly Creamer.)

Marynell Meador's reputation for drafts can be questioned. In 2008, her first pick was Tamera Young, but she passed up Nicky Anosike. Then again, who saw Nicky Anosike coming. In 2009, she picked Angel McCoughtry, and the #1 position has always yielded at the very least a solid player. You could end up with anything at the #10 spot.

The #23 Pick: One thing I've noticed is that all of the star players generally get picked in the first round, the #1 through #13 positions. Afterwards, all you usually get is role player...until around the #27 spot of the draft. Then, there's a smattering of star picks afterwards, testimony to teams that just got lucky.

Why is that? Here's my theory. For the early part of the draft, teams stick to a list of pretty much the top 20 players or so - players about which everyone is in agreement. These players are the group of "great players". Some are great, but by the early twenties the "name picks" have run out. Everyone is guessing.

However, if all of the players you wanted are gone - now is the time when you just have to guess. Or, if you don't guess, you take risks. You stray away from the tried and true, and you pick that player out of the Ohio Valley Conference who is 6-2 or 6-3 but led the NCAA in blocks. All that are left are the risky picks at this stage, and sometimes, risk turns into reward.

The #36 Pick: Unfortanately, even the risky picks are gone by the time you get to the #36 picks. 11 out of 12 of the #36 picks in history were either busts or never played at all. The only player that was any good was Kara Wolters. Everything else has been disaster.

This is the level where you should be thinking of a local player. Odds are good that the person you pick will never see a WNBA court. You could pick someone from Georgia, or Georgia Tech, or Kennesaw State, or Mercer. Why not use the #36 pick for publicity, if nothing else? Either that, or sign some Eurostar and at least keep the drafting rights to that player.

(* * *)

Drafting is more of an art than a science. Still, in the second and third rounds, there's no reason not to just spin the roulette wheel. But that very first pick has to pay off, because if it doesn't, your entire draft could be flushed away - nothing more than a bad memory.

Projecting the 2010 Draft Class: The Senior Prospects Metric

It can't be stopped. It can't be reasoned with. It barges into serious discussion like a drunk barging into a church picnic. The new 2010 Senior Prospects Metric (SPM) calculations are ready for the 2010 WNBA Draft!

The point of the SPM is to project future WNBA performance based on a player's junior year in college. Granted, a lot can happen between August 2009 and June 2010, but with that in mind, the SPM suggests players to keep your eyes on during the offseason.

Without going into the gory details, here's how the numbers are calcuated.

* The SPM is strongly based on a player's rebounding, shot blocking and stealing.
* Players who can shoot the 3-pointer get credit in the SPM. A guard might not be able to block shots, but she can (or should) be able to shoot the 3-pointer.
* An efficiency rating is created based on adjusted Wins Score per minute.
* The SPM doesn't like players who turn over the ball. The metric is subtractive instead of the traditional assist/turnover ratio.
* Players are penalized if they are older than the average player. Those players are probably better because they're further along in their physical development.
* The SPM loves players who can get 50 steals and 50 blocks in a season. Out of the 127 players studied, only two made that cut - Jessica Breland of North Carolina and Vivian Frieson of Gonzaga.
* The relative strength of a player's conference is taken into account.
* The SPM doesn't like players that are too short. Usually, those players get eaten alive in the WNBA.
* The SPM looks with a jaundiced eye at any player who is 6'6" or more. Generally, those players don't turn out to be that great.
* In addition to 3-point accuracy, guards should make a mininum number of 3-pointers.
* A player should rebound well for her position.
* The SPM gives bonuses to high-usage players - players that eat up a lot of their team's possessions - clearly, those players are generating a lot of their team's offense and beyond a certain point, it impacts their offensive efficiency because opposing teams are keying those defenses on those players. Likewise, low usage players are penalized.
* The Brittany Pittman Rule. This is an option rule, and stats will be presented with and without the rule. Brittany Pittman has the highest rank in the SPM, but she's a little known player from Morehead State. The rule: "Any player who is not from a major conference - the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 or SEC - will have their score docked by half." In general, players from "mid-major" conferences are ignored at the WNBA Draft.

We take all of these stats from these 127 players and throw them into a blender. Everyone gets assigned a number by the SPM which indicates - or rather, should indicate - their potential.

First, let's look at the rankings without the Brittany Pittman Rule. (We expect Brittany Pittman to rise to the top.)





And now, we look at the stats with the Brittany Pittman Rule in effect.





So it seems that according to the SPM, neither Jayne Appel nor Tina Charles is the best player around even if we apply the Brittany Pittman Rule. That honor goes to Jessica Breland, a forward out of North Carolina. Appel comes in third behind Danielle Wilson, a center out of Baylor. Epipphany Prince, who will skip her senior year of college finishes eighth.

Tina Charles ends up in 12th place. Why? Not as many steals or blocked shots per game as some of the other contenders. She's a good player, and the SPM is just a number.

Some odd names appearing in the top 20: Brittany Pittman of Morehead State still stays in the Top 10 even after being docked for playing in the Ohio Valley Conference. Courtnay Pilypaitis of Vermont should be worth a look. There are other players from non-major conferences in the top 20 as well.

Which leads me to another conclusion. The 2010 Draft will not be as strong as drafts of the previous years. Comparing my values to the values of the 2008 class and the 2009 class, the values drop more quickly. There just aren't that many impact players coming out of the 2010 Draft.

This is good news for teams that do well in the 2009 season, and bad news for the lottery finishers. It is less likely that the acquisition of one player is going to turn a team around. There is no Candace Parker-like figure in this draft, or even an Angel McCoughtry-like figure. In any case, the 2009-10 off season will be interesting to watch. A lot of players are clumped together...so which ones will break out of the pack?

Update: pilight's comment forced me to look up some information about Jessica Breland. As it turns out, she has Hodgkin's lymphoma and will be undergoing chemotherapy and will probably miss the 2009-10 season. However, Hodgkin's lymphoma is one of the most curable forms of cancer.